A Super Bowl champion has come from the AFC West division for the third time in the past five seasons. However, the champion has been the same team every time — the Kansas City Chiefs. 

Sportsbooks expect much of the same from Kansas City this season, setting its win total at 11.5 wins, with a bit of juice on the Over.

Additionally, the Los Angeles Chargers are projected to finish second in the division, while Denver and Las Vegas are expected to be bottom-dwellers. 

Will the Chargers, Broncos or Raiders give the Chiefs some semblance of competition this season, or can we expect Patrick Mahomes and company to dominate the division again? 

Check out our AFC West preview and best bet below, with current win totals and odds via DraftKings: 

Broncos: 5.5 wins (+105/-125) 

Coach Sean Payton has complete autonomy, which was quite evident when Payton and the Broncos selected former Oregon standout Bo Nix to replace Russell Wilson under center. 

Payton has compared Nix to Drew Brees, whom he coached in New Orleans; both are somewhat undersized for the position and possess similar qualities. 

Assuming Nix starts from Day 1, there will inevitably be growing pains, especially since Denver moved Jerry Jeudy to the Cleveland Browns for late-round picks. 

The Broncos still have Courtland Sutton and signed Josh Reynolds, but overall the supporting cast is not talented enough to make them more than an average offense. 

Denver’s defense ranked 31st per PFF last season; it gave up the 27th-most points and the 29th-most yards per game. The secondary is an atrocity and the Broncos did virtually nothing in the draft and free agency to help. 

Chargers: 8.5 wins (-155/+130) 

Welcome to the Jim Harbaugh era in Los Angeles.

After winning the national championship at Michigan, Harbaugh opted to jump back to the NFL, where he has had success, including taking the San Francisco 49ers to the Super Bowl in 2012; he also made three consecutive NFC Championship games between 2011-14. 

Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams are all gone, which could make life a little challenging for Justin Herbert. Still, offensive tackle Joe Alt, a Notre Dame rookie, should help give him more time in the pocket. 

Los Angeles did bring in Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins, but Dobbins has only played in nine games since the end of the 2020 season, so his health will be paramount for the offense. 

Keeping Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack is also massive for the Chargers’ defense, a unit that significantly underperformed last season but could improve under new defensive coordinator Jesse Minter. 

Chiefs: 11.5 wins (-115/-105) 

By their recent standards, the Chiefs were underwhelming in the regular season, winning merely 11 games, before surging in the postseason. 

Ironically, despite still having Mahomes, Isiah Pacheco, and Travis Kelce, the Chiefs’ offense struggled at times, ranking 15th in points scored and 12th in overall offense, per PFF. 

However, don’t expect the same complacency and mediocrity in 2024; the Chiefs have Mahomes, Pacheco, Kelce, and Rashee Rice back (pending his suspension). They also signed Marquise Brown and drafted wide receiver Xavier Worthy, who ran a 4.21 40-yard dash at the combine. 

Defensively, Kansas City prioritized DT Chris Jones, a show-stopping interior force. In short, this high-octane offense should return to its former ways this season. 

Raiders: 6.5 wins (-130/+110) 

Despite starting Aidan O’Connell under center for 10 games, the Raiders were still able to secure eight wins in 2023. O’Connell and Gardner Minshew will duke it out for QB1 in 2024, but neither player is bound to fix the apparent issues at the position. 

Further, don’t be shocked if Davante Adams is traded at some point this year. Outside of Adams, the wide receiver position is relatively thin. Rookie Brock Bowers won’t fix all of the problems in the passing game, as tight ends scarcely make immediate splashes. 

Signing Christian Wilkins will keep the defense afloat, forming a nice tandem with Maxx Crosby, but the secondary is one of the weaker units in the AFC. 

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AFC West Best Bet 

The Chargers have suffered from horrendous coaching for quite some time. This should change with Harbaugh in 2024. And it certainly helps that the Chargers are projected to have the second-easiest schedule in the NFL. 

They improved the offensive line with Alt, and more time in the pocket for Herbert can only mean good things for the team, even if the other skill positions are a bit light now. Take the Over on 8.5 wins. 

PICK: Chargers over 8.5 wins (-154, FanDuel)