Embattled House Speaker Mike Johnson is losing ground among Republicans and followers of former President Donald Trump, while rising among Democrats and supporters of Democratic President Joe Biden. Next week, Johnson will face a historic vote in the U.S. House of Reps. to remove his gavel and remove him from office.

Democrats plan to vote to keep Johnson in his position by supporting the motion to table Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s (R-GA) privileged resolution on a motion to remove Johnson from the Speakership. Democrats’ rule vote on the foreign assistance bill earlier in April indicates that Hakeem Jeffries, the top Democrat in the House and the person who has effectively taken leadership of the chamber from Johnson, intends to ensure that Democrats defend Johnson. However, a lot of people might be wondering why Democrats, who together voted in October of last year to remove Speaker Kevin McCarthy from office, would give Johnson such a lifeline and save him.

According to surveys conducted over the past three weeks by YouGov and the Economist, Johnson is falling behind Republicans while rising among Democrats. In the last two weeks alone, Johnson has witnessed double-digit shifts in favor of him among Democrats and against him among Republicans.

Three successive Economist/YouGov surveys show this tendency. Back in mid-April, Johnson’s overall favorability rating was already net negative, with 26% of respondents approving and 35% disapproving of his job performance, before he ceded operational control of the House chamber to Democrats with the foreign aid package that sends billions of US tax dollars to Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky. In this study, which took place between April 14 and 16, 39% of participants were unsure about their opinions of Johnson.

However, comparing the demographic split of responses to this question, there was a clear division in mid-April between Trump and Biden supporters, as well as between Republicans and Democrats. Johnson’s popularity rating at the time was 50% among Trump supporters; his disapproval rating was 18%, and 32% of respondents were unsure. Johnson’s ratings among Republicans were 44% approval, 22% disapproval, and 34% undecided. Johnson’s acceptance rating was 12 percent among Biden supporters; his disapproval rating was 61 percent, and 27 percent of voters were unsure. Democrats’ opinions of Johnson were 14 percent in favor and 52 percent against, with 34 percent unsure.

The percentages turned entirely against Johnson just one week later, in the midst of his violation of his earlier pledge not to approve Ukraine aid without real border security here in the United States. The results of the April 21–23 Economist/YouGov survey reveal that 31% of the sample as a whole approve of Johnson, a 6% rise, while 42% of the sample as a whole disapprove, a 7% increase, and 27% did not know. Therefore, what explains the huge variations in Johnson’s figures from week to week? The explanation lies in the combination of a sharp decline in Republican support for Trump and an equally dramatic increase in Democratic support for him.

Johnson saw a net 12-point swing in only one week, falling from 50% approval to 47% approval and rising from 18% disapproval to 27% disapproval. Overall, Johnson’s popularity rating among Republicans increased by two points from 44 to 46 percent on a weekly basis—which appears to indicate that establishment Republicans are rallying around him as Trump supporters desert him in large numbers—while his disapproval rating stayed at 22 percent. However, Johnson’s support among Democrats increased by a net 8 points; while his disapproval remained high at 53%, it decreased from 61%. For the head of the purportedly opposing party, that is a significant improvement in just one week. Then, in that one week, Johnson gained a net four points among Biden supporters. His approval jumped from 12 to 16 percent, while his disapproval stayed at 61 percent.

This pattern persisted throughout late last week and into this week for an additional week. The next week’s Economist/YouGov survey from April 28 to April 30 further accelerated the trend. His popularity rating has now fallen back to 26%, erasing whatever gains he achieved by selling out, just one week after he betrayed Ukraine. His total disapproval rating has now fallen back to 37% among the broader population. Even if it is a net neutrality compared to the days immediately following the adoption of the foreign aid package, it is a 2 percent decrease from two weeks prior. However, in this instance, there is still a significant and accelerating generational change in Johnson’s support and disapproval.

With just 41% of Trump supporters endorsing him, Johnson’s disapproval is now up to 31%, marking a net 21 percent swing against the president in just two weeks and another double-digit swing against him from a week ago. That is a severe, quantifiable decline in support, almost unprecedented for such a short period of time. The Republican establishment’s euphoria following the passage of the foreign aid package has completely dissipated. Johnson’s popularity rating fell to 39 percent in this most recent poll, while his disapproval rose to 27 percent. This suggests a 12-percent swing against the speaker among Republicans in just one week.

Author: Steven Sinclaire