Lucy Letby, a former British neonatal nurse, was convicted of murdering seven babies and attempting to murder six others between June 2015 and June 2016. She was found guilty of these crimes at the Countess of Chester Hospital in north-west England, where she worked as a nurse.

Corporate media have labelled Letby as the “killer nurse.”  But is she? 

Using a powerful statistical model – a Bayesian network model – that makes predictions where data is uncertain,  it can be shown that all but one of the babies that Letby has been convicted of causing harm had a high probability of stillbirth or dying within the first week after birth.

Mr. Law, Health and Technology has followed the Lucy Letby case closely. He has published numerous articles, including a 23-part series and counting, on a Substack page titled ‘Law, Health and Technology Newsletter’.  Part 23 of the  Lucy Letby or “LL” series is titled ‘How likely was it that the Neonates at CoCH would Survive?’.

“The Countess of Chester Hospital babies that Lucy Letby was accused of harming had a very high likelihood of stillbirth or neonatal death within the first 7 days of their life,” Mr. Law, Health and Technology wrote.

His article went on to describe the statistical proof that all except one of the babies that Lucy Letby allegedly harmed had an extremely elevated risk of dying – a significantly high probability of stillbirth or neonatal mortality within the first 7 days of life.

In the article below, Professor Norman Fenton highlights a recent interview with Dr. Scott McLachlan, also known as Mr. Law, Health and Technology, in which the two men discuss the statics and probabilities behind the case.

Lucy Letby Case: Statistics of Coincidences

By Prof. Norman Fenton

On 2 July 2024, I did an interview with Dr. Scott McLachlan of the Law, Health & Technology Substack. Scott has been monitoring the Lucy Letby (“killer nurse”) case in a series of comprehensive articles. I first interviewed Scott about the case in 2023 shortly after the first trial when Lucy was convicted of the murder of 6 babies.

Scott has continued to highlight concerns about the original trial, the failed appeal and the new trial for the murder of “baby K.” By coincidence, within minutes of finishing the interview – where we discussed all the latest developments in the case – we heard that the jury in the new trial had (very quickly) returned a guilty verdict. Unlike in the original trial the verdict this time was unanimous.

The interview included some discussion about the statistical issues in the case. In this 2-minute excerpt, we discuss the chart presented by the prosecution in the first trial that showed Lucy was present during all 25 ‘crashes’ of babies over the period where she was suspected of causing harm.

This chart clearly had a powerful impact on the jury, but how unusual was it to observe a sequence of events like this where the same nurse was present?

Because the judge told the jury in the new case that they could take account of the previous convictions, that guilty verdict was inevitable. But Scott has serious concerns about the lack of medical evidence against Lucy in the case of baby K.

The full (60-minute) video is on Rumble:

The original 2023 interview: