There are plenty of seats in play – yet one outcome seems all but inevitable.

Unlike the Senate and the Oval Office, it remains to be seen who will control the US House of Representatives. But the suspense only lasts so long – and while 25 races haven’t been called and neither party yet holds the majority, certain telling trends have emerged. When all the votes are counted, who will hold the House?

Races to Watch

Republicans are closest to the majority, with 211* races called in their favor, while Democrats have won 199 so far – and not every seat ended up with the same party as before. Democrats managed to flip five red seats, but Republicans flipped six, giving them a net gain of +1 so far.

The remaining 25 races are all tight – but three specifically have candidates who are less than 1,000 votes apart! In Arizona’s District 6, where incumbent Republican Juan Ciscomani is fighting to hold onto his seat, Democrat challenger Kirsten Engel currently leads him by just 211 votes with 72% of the ballots tallied. Incumbent Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks is barely keeping ahead of her Democrat opponent, Christina Bohannan, leading by just 797 votes in Iowa’s District 1 with more than 95% of the counting done – and in California’s District 47, Republican Scott Baugh is just 616 votes ahead of Democrat Dave Min.

Some are teetering, though, and will likely be called at any time. In Louisiana’s District 6, for example, 99% of the votes have been counted already, and Democrat Cleo Fields enjoys a lead of more than 38,000 votes over Republican Elbert Guillory.

If the Trend Holds …

As dramatic as these individual races are at the moment, the overall trend leans toward just one outcome. That the GOP will claim a majority seems almost inevitable. Republicans already hold 211 seats, so close to the 218 required for a majority. And Democrats, of course, are much further away at 199.

Republicans lead in 11 of the 25 uncalled races, while Democrats are ahead in 14. If that doesn’t change, the end count will be 222 to 213. Republicans, therefore, have just a little wiggle room to lose a few of the toss-up races and still come out ahead. Democrats don’t have that advantage; they have to nail all 14 of the elections they’re expected to win, then pick up several more!

As the House Goes, So Goes the Nation

Before this election, the GOP enjoyed a 220-212 majority, a margin of eight. Now it seems poised to grow that by just one. By itself, that’s good enough news for Republicans, but it’s hardly earth-shattering. Both sides strove to take seats from the other party. When it’s all said and done, about a dozen will have changed hands, proving that their work wasn’t all for naught – but a net change of just one after all that must leave lawmakers feeling a bipartisan exhaustion.

Yet taken in the broader context of the election cycle, a 222-213 lead for Republicans – or any GOP majority, for that matter – is a huge win for Republicans and a devastating loss for Democrats. Donald Trump and JD Vance didn’t just barely squeak by Kamala Harris and Tim Walz; they blew past them. The Republican candidates won 25 more electoral votes than required – with two more states to be called and both leaning their way, which could eventually bring their electoral count up from 295 to 312 – and they have the popular vote by almost 4.5 million. The GOP also managed to pick up another Senate win Thursday, bringing that majority up to 53. With just two races left in the upper chamber, both of which seem likely (though not certain) to go to Democrats, the final count there appears to be 53-47 in favor of Republicans.

Once the White House and Senate go to the same party, political appointments – including to the Supreme Court – are practically locked in. Democrats lost their chance to have any power over those matters before the sun rose Wednesday. What they fight for now is the ability to block the MAGA legislative agenda and maybe – maybe – cause enough chaos to stop Trump from passing the brass ring to JD Vance or whoever else the party puts forward in 2028. Today, even with two dozen races in the air, that fight seems all but over.

* Editor’s note: The numbers found in this article are based on those from The New York Times and Associated Press. Some other election trackers have slightly different predictions based on how they call races. For example, AP and the NYT have the current House count at 211-199. NBC has 211-200, and CBS has 215-208. The vote counts are the same, however, as are the likely end results.