All the latest polls, betting odds, and news. Updated Daily.

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The betting markets swing heavily back toward Donald Trump. The race looks tight, but margins are starting to show. Election Day is here and Liberty Nation News wants you to have the full facts. We’ll be providing all the latest results as they come in right here, so bookmark this page and keep checking back.

National Polling

According to the RealClearPolitics average of polls, Donald Trump maintains a slight national lead with a margin of 0.1% in multi-candidate polls, while the head-to-head average now favors Kamala Harris by 0.1%. So what are the final portents on Election Day?

Trump and Harris are in a virtual dead heat in terms of national polling. This is significant because, in both 2016 and 2020, Trump did not once have a lead. Although Kamala now has the polling edge by 0.1%, the race is not won through the popular vote. It does, however, suggest that the former president is enjoying a level of support he has not attained in the last nine years.

When other candidates are included in the polling (Jill Stein of the Green Party, Libertarian Chase Oliver, Cornel West, and even Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) Trump regains the advantage. Stein is the most consistent performer in this category, and it could be that she makes a significant difference. Indeed, in the 2016 race, if we assume that the majority of Green votes went to Hillary Clinton, she would have won in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, changing the whole outcome of that contest. The fact that most media outlets have not been including third-party efforts in their analysis has an element of whistling past the graveyard about it.

Battle for the Battlegrounds

The superb RealClearPolitics average of battleground polls grants Donald Trump a lead in five of the seven swing states. An average here suggests Trump maintains his advantage across these subsections by 0.8%. While this is valuable data, it is worth narrowing the lens. Liberty Nation News opted to take the average of only the five most recent surveys. We feel this provides a more up-to-date snapshot of the race as it stands today. Using this rubric:

• Arizona – Trump +3.2%
• Georgia – Trump +1.6%
• Michigan – Trump +0.2%
• Nevada – Trump +0.8%
• North Carolina – Trump +1%
• Pennsylvania – Trump +0.8%
• Wisconsin – Harris +0.2%

Our method grants Trump a 1.05% average advantage across the battlegrounds. Notably, when using the latest surveys, the results show Trump has the edge in six of the seven battlegrounds, losing only in Wisconsin. The latest tally shows that Trump has lost fractional ground in Nevada and North Carolina, but has increased his lead in Pennsylvania. Kamala Harris has lost ground in Wisconsin.

If the election were held today, based on these numbers, Donald Trump would win 299 Electoral College votes. More than the required 270 to gain the presidency.

Betting on Election 2024

It is often the betting markets that prove most accurate when it comes to predicting electoral outcomes – and why wouldn’t they? It takes a high level of confidence to put one’s money on the line. On Election Day 2020, the odds* looked like this:

• Joe Biden: 4/7 (-175)
• Donald Trump: 6/4 (+150)

And the cash players turned out to be right. So, what are the final odds on election day?

• Donald Trump: 15/22 (-147.06)
• Kamala Harris: 16/11 (+146)

Trump’s probability of winning the election sits at 59.52% compared to Harris’ at 40.65%. A swing toward Trump of more than two points since yesterday, and an almost 20-point divide between the two candidates.

• Donald Trump to win between 270 and 299 EC votes – 9/4 (+225) or a 30.77% probability
• Kamala Harris to win between 270 and 299 EC votes – 3/1 (+300) or a 25%  probability
• Donald Trump to win between 300 and 329 EC votes – 11/4 (+275) or a 26.67% probability
• Kamala Harris to win between 300 and 329 EC votes – 4/1 (+400) or a 20% probability

After yesterday’s blip, the odds of a Trump victory are now the best market bet, with the most likely outcome being the former president winning between 270 and 299 EC votes, and the second most likely being Trump taking between 300 and 329 EC votes.

* Betting odds explained: Betting odds are displayed here in the British format, known as fractional odds, and the American format, often called moneyline odds. With fractional odds, the second number represents the amount of money bet, and the first number is the return. 3/5 means a winning bet of $5 would yield a $3 profit. Moneyline odds show a minus (-) or plus (+) symbol for favorites and underdogs, respectively. The favorite may have odds of -300, meaning somebody would have to bet $300 in order to win $100. An underdog might have odds of +250, meaning a person would win $250 on a $100 wager.

Read More on Liberty Nation News’ Election Coverage:

Fear and Loathing at the End of the Campaign Trail

Trump and the GOP Feeling It: Can They Win the Trifecta?

Finally, Closing Arguments – And Away We Go