A post shared on X claims that former President Donald Trump is winning the polls by 15% against Vice President Kamala Harris.

Trump is now leading Harris with 15% in the polls!

If he wins, the biggest #Bitcoin bull market ever starts. pic.twitter.com/dmyRuWr0Ew

— Crypto Rover (@rovercrc) November 4, 2024

Verdict: False

Polymarket is not a polling platform but a betting odds platform.

Fact Check:

Social media users are claiming that Trump is leading Harris by 15% in the polls. One user wrote, “Trump is now leading Harris with 15% in the polls! If he wins, the biggest #Bitcoin bull market ever starts.”

This claim is false. First, Polymarket is not a polling aggregator, it is a betting odds platform. As NBC News reports, “offers bets in sports, business, science, politics and more, reports that users have spent more than $2.7 billion placing bets on the next president.”

Shayne Coplan, the CEO of Polymarket, has stated on X that “prediction markets provide the public with a much needed alternative data source.” Polymarket also said in an Oct. 21 blog post that the “key difference between polls and Polymarket is their output: Polls estimate vote share, while prediction markets and election models estimate the odds of a certain outcome.”

Actual polling aggregators, such as FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, show the election is in a dead heat. RealClearPolitics, for example, shows that Trump and Harris are tied at 48.5% as of Nov. 4. (RELATED: Did FEMA Hire Illegal Immigrants For Hurricane Relief Efforts)

Polymarket has spent tens of thousands of dollars on advertising its election betting on social media platforms such as Facebook, Instagram and X, according to NBC News.