Donald Trump has been getting a ton of good polling recently and, as of Friday morning, has erased Kamala Harris’s lead in the RealClearPolitics national polling average:

11 days until Election Day! Here’s how the 2024 presidential race compares to the same point in the 2020 and 2016 elections, according to the RCP poll averages. pic.twitter.com/cjebQJ74Kg

— Matt Margolis (@mattmargolis) October 25, 2024

This is huge. As CNN’s chief polling analyst, Harry Enten, noted Friday morning, “Trump may finally get his great white whale,” referring to his long-standing pursuit of winning the national popular vote — a feat Trump missed in both 2016 and 2020.

As you know, current polling shows this election is going to be close, but Kamala’s edge has plummeted.

In the latest national polling reviewed by Enten, Kamala and Trump are essentially in a dead heat. “That New York Times poll — a tie,” Enten explained, represents “the middle of the spectrum” of recent polls. Some surveys, like CNBC and the Wall Street Journal, even give Trump a slight edge, while others show Harris holding onto a narrow lead. According to Enten, Harris’s lead “3 points, according to Ipsos” is still “well within the margin of error.” For a Republican candidate, such close standings against a Democrat at this stage are unusual and could indicate an unprecedented shift. “I haven’t heard about a Republican potentially winning the popular vote in a while,” he said, recalling that “it hasn’t happened since 2004,” when George W. Bush defeated John Kerry.

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“So the fact that the polls right now are so close… the fact that Donald Trump has a legitimate shot of winning the popular vote is something I think a lot of folks, including in my line of work, really didn't think could possibly happen when Donald Trump was running last time around. He could make history, not just for Donald Trump, [but] for a Republican candidate, as well.”

“I think Democrats' heads are all exploding out there, watching this right now,” observed CNN’s John Berman. 

I bet they are.

But naturally, being CNN, they needed to reassure their liberal viewers that Trump wasn’t going to win. So Berman and Enten discussed the possibility that Trump could win the popular vote but lose the Electoral College. Such a scenario is extremely unlikely, as it is widely accepted that the Electoral College tends to favor Republicans right now. But according to Enten, Trump making inroads in major Democratic strongholds like California and New York could be a factor.

"You can dig down into the state-level polling and you can see that Donald Trump is doing particularly well in California, Florida, New York, and Texas," he says. "Of course, none of these states are really on the board at this point. So Donald Trump may end up gaining in the national popular vote polls, but actually is wasting votes, which could in fact lead to a case where Kamala Harris could sneak by in the electoral college by sweeping those Great Lake battleground states, which at this point are way too close to call."

There's a real shot Trump may get his great white whale: winning the popular vote. Polls show the race nationally is basically even as Trump runs far ahead of where he polled in 2016 or 2020.

He'd be the 1st Republican to win the popular vote in 20 years & only 2nd in 36 years. pic.twitter.com/Pp4LJPwUZe

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 25, 2024