A new battleground poll conducted by the Senate Opportunity Fund (SOF) reveals a tight race for three Democratic Senators in pivotal states.

The poll, carried out from October 19-22 among likely voters in Nevada, Ohio, and Wisconsin, presents a distinct warning for Democrats as they gear up for the 2024 elections. The poll surveyed 600 likely voters per state with a margin of error of ±4.0%, conducted through text-to-web interviews. It spotlighted not only the vulnerability of Democratic incumbents but also the narrow margins shaping both the presidential and Senate races.

In the Senate, the balance stands at 51 seats for the Democrats (counting three independents who caucus with them) against 49 for the Republicans. In the upcoming election, 34 Senate seats are on the ballot. Democrats and Independents are defending 23 of these seats. The Republicans have the opportunity to regain control of the Senate by achieving a net gain of two seats, or one seat if they also win the presidential race in 2024.

Senator Jacky Rosen (D-NV) finds herself in a tight race with Republican challenger Sam Brown. Both candidates are currently tied at 48% each in the Silver State.

In Ohio, a state that has grown increasingly red in recent cycles, Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) is trailing his Republican opponent, Bernie Moreno, by a slim margin of 49% to 47%. Despite Brown’s longstanding political presence in Ohio, Moreno has gained momentum among moderates and suburban voters. The poll’s findings suggest that Brown’s path to re-election is uncertain, showing a larger struggle for Democrats in the Rust Belt.

.@OnMessageInc/@SenOppFund (R)

SENATE
Ohio – 🔴 Moreno 49-47%
Wisconsin – 🔴 Hovde 49-48%
Nevada – 🟡 Tie 48-48%
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PRESIDENT
Ohio – 🔴 Trump 52-44%
Wisconsin – 🔴 Trump 48-47%
Nevada – 🔴 Trump 50-47%
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#238 (1.1/3.0) | 10/19-22 | 1,800 LV https://t.co/snpmRzIUa9 pic.twitter.com/A8xpmVgXAi

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 25, 2024

The shockwaves were also felt in Wisconsin, where Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) is down by one point against Republican Eric Hovde (49% to 48%). Baldwin’s campaign faces challenges in shoring up support among moderate voters and independent women, crucial voting blocs in the Badger State.

The results send a clear message to Senate Democrats: the road to maintaining control is rocky, and each race could go either way. These findings add to the urgency for Democrats, who are already grappling with economic concerns, public safety issues, and rising political polarization that could sway undecided voters in the final weeks. With both parties investing heavily in Nevada, Ohio, and Wisconsin, these states are viewed as must-wins for a Senate majority.

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