Veteran pollster Matt Towery shared a concerning update for Democrats during a segment on Fox News, revealing a growing trend of support for former President Donald Trump in critical battleground states. According to Towery, the data he’s reviewed points to a shift that hasn’t been seen in years, potentially signaling trouble for Vice President Kamala Harris and other prominent Democrats as the 2024 election nears.

“Trump is trending up in almost every single battleground state, almost every one,” Towery said to Laura Ingraham. “And when you ask the question: ‘How are your neighbors going to vote?’ You have very shy Trump voters sometimes. Those numbers explode. And I’ve not seen this in ages, and you know me, I’m usually Mr. doom and gloom for the Republicans and Trump.”

Towery’s analysis spans several key states, including Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Nevada, where Trump appears to be gaining traction. “Right now, I am seeing a true shift in public sentiment, not just in Michigan and Pennsylvania, I’m seeing it in Nevada. There’s been a turnaround there,” he noted.

However, not all battleground states are following the same pattern. Towery pointed to Georgia as a “problem child” for Republicans, noting that some traditional Republican voters remain hesitant about Trump. “The only problem child right now is Georgia, and that’s because you have two groups—traditionalist Republicans who go way back—they’re not feeling the groove with Trump right now.”

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The shifting dynamics in the states could have significant implications for both parties, as swing states often determine the outcome of presidential elections. While Towery highlighted the rising support for Trump, he also acknowledged the potential impact of natural disasters, particularly the recent storm that devastated parts of the Southeast.

“Let me add one last thing,” Towery said, reflecting on the storm’s aftermath. “I live in the center of it in St. Petersburg, Florida. I have neighbors left and right who lost their homes. So thank you for focusing on it. It has been a brutal week for everyone in the Southeast. And by the way, that storm affected Republican areas, and I’m just saying, demographically, all the way up, basically majority Republican other than Asheville.”

Polling has played a crucial role in U.S. elections for decades, shaping public perception and helping candidates and parties gauge voter sentiment. The use of election polls dates back to the early 20th century, with the Literary Digest’s famous (and flawed) 1936 poll, which incorrectly predicted Alf Landon would defeat Franklin D. Roosevelt. The error stemmed from sampling bias, as the poll disproportionately surveyed wealthier individuals during the Great Depression, missing the broader voter base that overwhelmingly supported Roosevelt.

Modern polling techniques improved after this misstep, especially with George Gallup’s development of scientific sampling. Gallup correctly predicted the 1936 election, setting the stage for polls as a critical tool in political campaigns. Notable election polls have influenced major political moments. In 1948, nearly all polls indicated that Thomas Dewey would defeat Harry Truman. However, Truman won in a major upset, famously holding up a newspaper with the incorrect headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman.” This marked another lesson in the limitations of polling, particularly the danger of premature assumptions based on early data.

More recently, in the 2016 presidential election, almost all national polls predicted a victory for Hillary Clinton, and while she won the popular vote, Donald Trump secured an electoral college victory. Pollsters later cited underestimating Trump’s support in key swing states as a major factor in the surprising outcome. Today, former President Trump is on the campaign trail in Wisconsin, while Vice President Kamala Harris is also making stops in crucial battleground states. Both are ramping up their efforts as they head into the final stretch before the elections on November 5.

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