As the presidential campaign enters its final full month before Election Day, speculation is rife about an October surprise. That’s the idea of a late-breaking news event, especially in the form of a well-timed oppo dump designed to hurt a particular candidate, with the potential to upend the race.

The 2016 election featured two October surprises. There was the leak of the Access Hollywood audio in which then-candidate Donald Trump made comments that were unquestionably lewd and characterized by opponents as a taped confession of sexual assault. (Trump characterized his words as “locker room talk.”)

Many Republicans withdrew their endorsements and called on Trump to withdraw from the race. GOP Chairman Reince Priebus, who would go on to serve as Trump’s first White House chief of staff, advised him that the only alternative was to “lose in the biggest landslide in history.”

Then came the second October surprise in the form of then-FBI Director James Comey’s letter informing Congress of the discovery of new emails deemed pertinent to the investigation of Hillary Clinton’s handling of classified documents. Not much came of it, but Clinton blamed the letter and WikiLeaks combined for her subsequent election loss.

It was like a political game of musical chairs — whichever candidate is still working through a bad news cycle when the music stops loses.

But it is possible that what will shape this year’s race for the White House in its closing weeks won’t be a surprise at all. It will be the continuation of a trend happening in plain sight for much of President Joe Biden’s term: growing chaos instead of the promised normalcy.

Iran has hammered Israel with ballistic missiles. Israel’s response has yet to be finalized as of this writing, but based on its recent strikes in the region, is sure to be swift and possibly devastating. 

Events closer to home are no more prosaic. A hurricane has devastated communities, leaving Americans — many living in presidential battleground states — underwater or out of their homes. A major port workers strike could cripple supply chains.

When voters picked Biden over Trump, many thought they were bringing down the curtain on the Republican’s tumultuous first term and returning to more conventional presidential behavior. What happened instead made many Americans long for Trump’s steady hand. It remains to be seen whether enough voters feel that way to hand Trump a second term.

Trump’s detractors find all this unfathomable. Doesn’t the public remember the controversy du jour, the two impeachments, the pandemic, and January 6th? As perplexing as this may be to a lot of people in Washington, not all of them Democrats, Trump is viewed more as the president of pre-pandemic America than as the bungler of COVID-19. And even if you disliked the lockdowns, school closures, and George Floyd riots, is Trump really more likely to bring back the worst of 2020 than the Democrats?

Vice President Kamala Harris has replaced Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket. She clearly wants to forget as much of 2020 (and 2019) as humanly possible. It’s worked reasonably well in the polls up to this point, though it hasn’t been the total game-changer it appeared to be as recently as the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.

In recent days, Biden intermittently staying in the White House while Harris practices a form of highly selective incumbency has had the feel of an eerie limbo. It will be hard to avoid accountability for the dramatic events unfolding in the news. And while Trump hasn’t become a steadier personality since leaving office, the fact that the end of his time in the Oval Office did not conclude the unceasing drama of American daily life may yet again redound to his benefit.

The question is whether Trump, more than Biden and Harris, can better manage the tensions now inflaming the globe — or better yet, appreciate the limits of Washington’s ability to manage them. Trump would like to be a dealmaker who negotiates an end to the wars that risk ensnaring the United States and its allies. But he is also personally dealing with Iranian provocation and remains an unpredictable force.

This October, perhaps no surprises are necessary.