As of tomorrow, we are five weeks out from, to borrow a phrase, the most important election of our lifetime. What makes this promise different than in the last few cycles is it happens to have the added benefit of being true. 

In my last column, I caught more than a little bit of grief from our VIP commenters that I was too optimistic and that I should ixnay on the ed-ray ave-way talk. Fair enough. Turnout is absolutely key at this point. The Trump campaign, and by extension, every supporter of the Republicans this year, needs to have the mindset that the former President is behind. That tends to sharpen one's focus and increases the determination to work harder. Nobody wants complacency at this stage of the game. Doors need to be knocked. Personal engagements have to be conducted. We all have a part to play, and nothing is more fundamental than getting your vote in early and bringing people with you. The larger the margin, the harder it is to cheat. I agree with all of that. 

I also am compelled to continue pouring over the volume of data that is constantly released, and give you my honest analysis as to where things stand. Regime media would love nothing more than to tell you Kamala Harris is running away with the election, and that all hope for the Republicans is lost. If there is one constant in each of the last six election cycles prior to this one that I've covered during my career in radio, it's the effort by the media wing of the Democratic Party to play mind games with conservative voters in order to depress turnout. I'm not here simply giving you empty happy talk. I'm here to give you real time encouragement that the argument conservatives have been making about which direction the country should head in the future is gaining purchase with more and more of the American people. What gives me that indication? Several things just in the last 72 hours. 

First, as of Sunday night, the Real Clear Politics Electoral Map, tossing in the swing states to the candidate in which direction they're leaning, inverted yet again in Donald Trump's favor. For the past 10 days, RCP had given Pennsylvania to Kamala Harris by a whisker, and that was enough for her to get to 276 EV's. Several polls, 10 of the last 11, in fact, dating back to mid-September, have the race either tied or Trump up anywhere from 1 to 3 points. Only Bloomberg's outlier poll of Harris +5 is keeping Pennsylvania's RCP current average at Trump +0.2. With each passing week, Harris' chances are fading coming down the stretch. Keep in mind that all of these polls had an average of 4.6% miss rate in favor of the Democrat last cycle. If Trump is ahead now in those polls even by a little bit, with their error rate, he's probably ahead outside of margin of error when everything is counted. Even without Nevada, Michigan or Wisconsin, if Trump wins Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and now Pennsylvania, which are all increasingly likely as more polls are released, it's game over for Harris. 

In Michigan, what was thought to be Kamala Harris' safest bet among the seven swing states, Atlas Intel, the most accurate polling outfit in the last couple cycles, came out with a survey over the weekend that has Trump now up 4. Before you write that off as an outlier of its own, take this into consideration. Elissa Slotkin, the Democratic Congresswoman locked in a dogfight with Republican Mike Rogers for the open Senate seat in the Wolverine State, said this on a donor call about her own internal polling. 

Michigan Dem Senate nominee Elissa Slotkin:
"I'm not feeling my best right now about where we are in Kamala Harris in a place like Michigan. We have her under water in our polling."

No one likes Kamala. pic.twitter.com/ra975iPi5d

— Sara Rose 🇺🇸🌹 (@saras76) September 30, 2024

That was enough of an eyebrow-raiser that even left-leaning Axios wrote this story up as an alarm bell. And to pile on, Mark Mitchell of Rasmussen Reports says they have Trump up 1, and that Slotkin's internals are probably even worse. 

We had Harris -1 in MI.

"Underwater" means more than one point.

Harris' internal polling is probably right of us.
🧐 pic.twitter.com/oNXdoye6oJ

— Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports (@Mark_R_Mitchell) September 29, 2024

So what happens if Michigan flips, too? Now the Electoral College map is at 296 for Donald Trump. What could be better? 

In Wisconsin, home of the Cheeseheads, Atlas Intel also snuck in results from the Badger State over the weekend. They have the race at Trump +1.5.

📊 Swing States Polling: @atlas_intel

PENNSYLVANIA
🟥 Trump: 51% (+2.9)
🟦 Harris: 48.1%
—
WISCONSIN
🟥 Trump: 49.7% (+1.5)
🟦 Harris: 48.2%
—
MICHIGAN
🟥 Trump: 50.6% (+3.4)
🟦 Harris: 47.2%

GEORGIA
🟥 Trump: 49.6% (+0.6)
🟦 Harris: 49%
—
ARIZONA
🟥 Trump: 49.8% (+1.2)… pic.twitter.com/eYNGsvqlYE

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 29, 2024

Now Trump would be at 306 in the Electoral College. I should quit while I'm ahead, right? You just can't stand any more good news? I'm terribly sorry to disappoint. 

We all know the Big 7 swing states by now - Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan. But did I mention that Real Clear Politics very quietly added an 8th state to the swing state mix? Who's up for Minnesota, the only state out of 50 that Ronald Reagan lost in 1984, now classifying as a swing state by RCP definitions? 

The average is now Harris +4.7%, with the margin of error in the last four polls taken around 3.5%. That means with the error rate, the Gopher State is now within 2, which means it's now a swing state. I'm not holding my breath, mind you, but it wasn't a swing state a week ago. In fact, the last time the state was even entertained as possibly being a hidden swing state was when Joe Biden was at the top of the ticket. Here we are, 24 hours before Minnesota's governor, Tim Walz, gets whacked in New York by J.D. Vance on CBS' debate stage, and he's turning out to be a drag on the Democratic ticket in his home state. Priceless. 

Say, did anyone catch the Saturday Night Live cold open with Dana Carvey coming back to play Joe Biden, and Maya Rudolph returning to play Kamala Harris? 

Maybe even the writers of SNL have gotten to the point where if you know, you know. This can't be too inspiring for the youth vote Kamala is looking to reach. And speaking of other demographic groups Kamala is having a hard time reaching, Steve Kornacki on MSNBC filed this report over the weekend, citing Harris weakness with Latinos that I've been telling you about here for weeks. 

I'll go back to where I began about this being the most important election of our lifetime. We currently are being run by, (checks notes), this guy. 

REPORTER: "Any comment on the strikes in Yemen, Mr. President!?"

BIDEN (or whatever's left of him): "I've spoken to both sides. They gotta settle the strike. I'm supporting the collective bargaining effort. I think they'll settle the strike."

🤔 pic.twitter.com/iFawNWdWyH

— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) September 30, 2024

Yes, the president of the United States thinks Houthi strikes are no different than air controller or teacher strikes. He's for collective bargaining for all of them, and hopes that they settle in mediation. This is the guy with the nuclear codes. This is the guy Kamala Harris has been gaslighting you about for four years that he's at the top of his game. 

Kamala's biggest problem right now? She may truly believe Joe Biden is at the top of his game. What does that say about her intelligence level and discernment? The more time passes, it's looking like more Americans are plugging into the upcoming election and getting much more reliable current out of the Trump outlet. 

The former President remains, as he has been for months, one true gaffe of his own making from snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Barring that, all the underlying data keeps pointing to the GOP El Nino getting a degree or two warmer every day.