THROUGH THE ROOF!  That’s where the statistical probability that President Trump will win just went!  According to polling guru Nate Silver, not only is it highly probable President Trump WINS — but it’s likely to be an electoral college landslide!

#Latest @NateSilver538 Forecast (9/9)

🟥 Trump: 64.4% (new high)
🟦 Harris: 35.3%
——
Swing States: chance of winning

Pennsylvania – 🔴 Trump 65-35%
Michigan – 🔴 Trump 55-45%
Wisconsin – 🔴 Trump 53-47%
Arizona – 🔴 Trump 77-23%
North Carolina – 🔴 Trump 76-24%
Georgia – 🔴… pic.twitter.com/Cw23W9WmSK

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 9, 2024

Those are HUGE margins of victory!  Several pollsters have updated their numbers with wild swings over the last few weeks — but this is by far the largest jump so far showing that the final electoral college tally might not even be close!

A shocking new projection from pollster Nate Silver has Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump winning every swing state en route to an election landslide over Vice President Kamala Harris, Mediaite reported Monday.
MORE: https://t.co/PldUdjKbcK pic.twitter.com/LkhnJ2nzj0

— NEWSMAX (@NEWSMAX) September 9, 2024

Here’s the story as written up in NewsMax:

A shocking new projection from pollster Nate Silver has Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump winning every swing state en route to an election landslide over Vice President Kamala Harris, Mediaite reported Monday.

Silver’s update came after Sunday’s New York Times/Siena College poll gave Trump a lead nationally over Harris — 1 point head to head and 2 points with third-party candidates — blunting any post-Democratic National Convention bump.

“This is one of our highest-rated pollsters, so it has a fair amount of influence on the numbers, reducing Harris’ lead in our national polling average to 2.5 points, which would put her in dangerous territory in the Electoral College,” Silver teased on his Silver Bulletin blog before Monday’s update.

“And our model is more bearish on Harris still because of its convention bounce adjustment and its assessment of economic ‘fundamentals.'”

Nate’s calculations often sit oddly — but accurately — outside the average range of other polls.  From the same article in NewsMax, here’s why according to Nate:

Silver’s statistical modeling to project the Electoral College winner is more complex than a number comparison, as it uses data points outside mere polling.

“You’re welcome to debate the mechanics of the adjustment, but recent polls confirm its basic hypothesis that there’s been a shift in momentum against Harris,” Silver continued.

Tuesday’s debate will potentially reshape — if not define — the race next, Silver wrote in his contemporaneous analysis.

“The good news for Harris is that there’s a debate on Tuesday, and if she turns in a strong performance, nobody is going to care so much about the Times poll,” Silver wrote.

Other data modelers show a more competitive race than Silver projects.

Nate does go on to give a warning to those who would count the eggs before they’ve hatched, so to speak:

“Needless to say, stranger things have happened than a candidate who was behind in the polls winning,” Silver concluded. “And in America’s polarized political climate, most elections are close and a candidate is rarely out of the running.”

Nevertheless, with all the media avoidance and flip-flopping on policy… I can’t fathom a good showing for Kamala Harris in tomorrow’s big debate.  I have a feeling that issue with the muted mics is going to haunt her.  She’ll have to let President Trump speak and won’t be able to play “tough prosecutor” by showcasing her interruption abilities.

Which I highly suspect will put her INABILITIES on full display.

Even before Nate’s current numbers dropped, the “shift in momentum” we’ll talk about in a moment had already started showing up:

This is the projected map according to Nate Silver's 2024 election model.

Trump's odds are up to 63.8%. pic.twitter.com/36FVy2V5kK

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) September 8, 2024

Fox News is also carrying the story of Nate’s newest numbers:

Harris has come out ahead in several national polls and swing state polls since taking over the top of the ticket. However, the results of the new NYT/Siena College poll, according to Silver, show that the results of the poll confirmed his election model’s view that there was a “shift in momentum” in the race.

The NYT/Siena college poll also found more voters said Harris is “too liberal or progressive” on key policy issues than voters who said they considered Trump to be “too conservative.”

According to his model, Harris has just a 36% chance of winning the Electoral College, and overall, leads Trump by 2.5 points in Silver’s national polling average.

That “shift in momentum” — could that be because Kamala & Co finally sat down in front of cameras… and even CNN’s spin couldn’t hide the ineptitude?  Could it be because nearly the entirety of the Tim Walz family are Trump supporters!??? Maybe it had to do with the rising swell of support she is losing, and President Trump is gaining, from some big name democrats that are jumping the sinking ship of the democrat party?

Whatever is causing that “shift in momentum” — I think Nate’s right.  It’s happening.  And it seems to be spreading across different domains all at once.

Here’s more from the same Fox News story:

Silver also said on Wednesday that Michigan and Pennsylvania, both key swing states, might prove to be a problem for her.

“In PA, our polling averages had Harris +1.8 pre-DNC, but it’s now Harris +1.0. That’s before any convention bounce adjustment, which is implemented at a later stage of the model. In MI, the polling average has fallen from Harris +3.1 pre-DNC to Harris +1.9 now,” he wrote on X.

Silver pointed to multiple key portions of the NYT poll in an additional post on Sunday, specifically the fact that 47% of voters see Harris as too liberal.

“I’m not quite sure how Harris is supposed to spin her way out of this perception,” Silver wrote, noting that a high percentage of voters said they don’t know what Harris stands for in the poll, suggesting there was room to improve on those numbers.

“But Harris also blew one big opportunity to tack to the center with her selection of Tim Walz rather than Josh Shapiro: that a tiny minority of progressives objected to Shapiro was an argument in Shapiro’s favor, if anything. I think Walz was a decent enough pick on his own merits, but given an opportunity to offer a tangible signal of the direction her presidency was headed, she reverted to 2019 mode,” Silver wrote.

Could it be that the “shift in momentum” Nate is seeing came from two simple facts?

1. She has gone out of her way to avoid specifying her policies!
2. What is known about her previous policy record turns most voters off!

I have to agree with Nate, again:  I’m not quite sure how she could possibly spin her way out of the perception she has created.  And short of a completely obvious victory in tomorrow’s debate… I highly doubt her numbers will improve.  Not with pollsters, and not in Novembers when it’s counting time.