Earle-Sears launched her campaign to be the next governor of Virginia for an election that won’t take place for another year, but that could be heavily influenced by the outcome of the presidential race.

Three years ago, Earle-Sears was part of a Republican ticket that took control of the Virginia state government for the first time since Gov. Bob McDonnell left office in January 2014. The ticket led by Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) scored an upset victory over former Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D) in a state that had trended away from the Republican Party for the better part of a decade.

Virginia has a fickle pattern of consistently electing a governor of the party that is currently out of White House. But when McAuliffe won in 2013, that pattern was broken, at least for one term. Still, Youngkin was seen as an underdog in the increasingly blue state, before he managed to win a close race in 2021.

Regardless of what happens in November, Earle-Sears has the political acumen and personal story to ensure that, if she is the Republican nominee, the 2025 gubernatorial election will be extremely competitive, even if former President Donald Trump wins the presidential election and the White House is in Republican hands.

To begin with, Earle-Sears will greatly benefit from her association with the Youngkin administration, which enjoys high approval ratings among Virginia voters, despite the somewhat Democratic partisan lean of the commonwealth. Her personal life story is extremely compelling, as she immigrated from Jamaica as a child and is a veteran of the U.S. Marine Corps. She also has a tendency to create endearing viral moments, such as the time she gaveled in the state senate with her shoe.

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Still, there is a long way to go until the election next year, and the outcome of the presidential election will no doubt affect the race. As of now, whoever is the Republican nominee, whether it is Earle-Sears or someone else, will likely face off against Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA), the only declared Democratic candidate, who is no electoral slouch. Spanberger has won a string of close elections in a district that is among the most competitive in the nation.

But if anyone can put up a good fight against Spanberger and give Republicans a fighting chance, it is Earle-Sears, even in the political headwinds that could come if Trump is in the White House.