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Polling guru Nate Silver says his model gives former President Donald Trump nearly a 60% chance of winning the election, his best odds in more than a month.
The election forecast model, he wrote this on his Substack, gives Mr. Trump a 58.2% chance of getting an Electoral College majority, versus a 41.6% chance that Vice President Kamala Harris will do so.
As recently as last Thursday, Mr. Trump’s chances were only 52.4% to his Democratic opponent’s 47.3%.
“The forecast is still in toss-up range, but Trump’s chances of winning are his highest since July 30,” Mr. Silver wrote.
Mr. Silver attributed the change in his model, which is based on state-level polling and Electoral College outcomes rather than the overall national popular vote, to recent surveys in Michigan and Pennsylvania, plus Ms. Harris’ failure to get a big bounce from the recent Democratic National Convention.
“There’s room to debate the convention bounce stuff, but Harris has been getting a lot of mediocre state polls lately,” he wrote.
Ms. Harris still holds slight leads in both states, but less than she needs to given such other factors as polls’ consistent underestimation of Mr. Trump, her numbers with swing voters, and the expectations about the bounce a candidate should get out of the convention.
“National polls and polls of other swing states mostly decent for Harris, but erosion in PA/MI hurts a lot in the model,” he posted on X. “In MI, the polling average has fallen from Harris +3.1 pre-DNC to Harris +1.9 now.”
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