British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has called a snap general election to be held on July 4. In the United Kingdom, the governing political party is able to call an election at any point but must do so at least once every five years. Sunak would have had to hold an election by the end of January 2025.

Sunak might be hoping for the short-lived English summer shine to boost his prospects. Unfortunately for him, the odds of Sunak remaining prime minister and his Conservative Party retaining its majority aren’t good. In a fitting metaphor for the polling data, Sunak was drenched by rain as he spoke from the Downing Street podium on Wednesday. Adding to Sunak’s wet malaise was the blaring noise of “Things Can Only Get Better,” played by protesters outside the gates of his residence. That D:Ream song was used by Tony Blair’s campaign in 1997. Blair’s Labour Party defeated the Conservative Party by a landslide in that election.

A similar outcome is expected on July 4.

The latest polls show Keir Starmer’s Labour Party leading Sunak’s Conservatives by a very wide margin, somewhere around 20 points. If this lead carries forward to July 4 or even declines somewhat, it should see Labour secure a majority of around 200 seats in the 650-seat House of Commons. Attacking this lead will be a challenge for Sunak.

Sunak is likely to center the Conservatives’ campaign on three main concerns: immigration, the economy, and national security. On immigration, Sunak will draw heavy attention to Starmer’s opposition to his Rwanda migrant-holding policy. This involves relocating asylum-seekers who enter the U.K. illegally to Rwanda while their applications are considered. The policy is intended to deter illegal migration to the U.K. in recognition of significant public concern over this topic. With the U.K. economy showing signs of improvement, Sunak will also attempt to present Labour as a risk to strengthening prosperity. And on national security, Sunak is sure to point out that Labour has not matched his pledge to increase defense spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030. This may have salience with voters amid escalating U.K.-Russia tensions.

Still, Sunak’s task seems near-insurmountable. The British public appears to have lost patience with the Conservatives after 14 years in government. Scandals and the appearance of incompetence have degraded public trust. And with the politically centrist (at least by U.K./European standards) Starmer replacing the far-left Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader, Sunak has limited means of portraying his prime ministerial challenger as a risk too far.

What would a Starmer victory mean for the United States?

A Starmer premiership is highly unlikely to lead to a seismic shift in U.S.-U.K. relations. The centerpiece of that relationship remains the enmeshed intelligence and security cooperation and the two countries’ close economic relationship. Labour is the more natural ideological partner to the Democratic Party, so President Joe Biden and Starmer are likely to have a good working relationship. The U.S. will want Starmer’s support for tougher deterrent and security action against China.

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It’s also worth noting that Starmer’s presumptive foreign secretary (U.K. equivalent of the U.S. secretary of state), David Lammy, has been working to build close relationships with Republicans in Congress. This extends to Republicans close to former President Donald Trump. Following on from their meeting at the Munich Security Conference, Lammy has struck up a good relationship with Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), for example. This shows Labour’s interest in maintaining the special relationship in the event Trump returns to office.

The top line, however, is clear. Sunak is almost certainly soon headed out of government, and Starmer is almost certainly headed in.