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USC is one of four new teams entering the Big Ten this fall, and Lincoln Riley will lead the Trojans into their new conference without Caleb Williams, perhaps the best quarterback Riley has coached.
That’s a daunting task, but the Trojans have a loaded roster that might be up to the task.
Heading into their top-25 matchup against No. 13 LSU on Sunday in Vegas, the No. 23 Trojans are priced as the fifth-best team in the Big Ten with +2000 odds to win the conference at FanDuel.
The bookmaker also gives them +470 odds to make the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff.
Odds to win Big Ten, make College Football Playoff
| School | Big Ten Odds | CFP Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Ohio State | +145 | -650 |
| Oregon | +200 | -360 |
| Penn State | +500 | -145 |
| Michigan | +900 | +150 |
| USC | +2000 | +470 |
Can the Trojans overcome the loss of Williams and dramatically improve on defense? Let’s take a look at their personnel and schedule to see if there’s any betting value in the current futures markets.
Offensive outlook
The big news for USC is the departure of Williams, the former Heisman-winning quarterback and first pick in the NFL draft.
However, don’t sleep on Miller Moss (40/1 Heisman odds), who arrived at USC in 2021 and patiently waited for his opportunity to start.
In a transfer portal college football landscape, he’s a true anomaly, and he finished with six touchdown passes in a bowl game win over Louisville last year.
USC offers Moss plenty of supporting talent, including former elite recruit Zachariah Branch, who’s ready for a full-fledged breakout campaign as a wide receiver after finishing as a First-Team All-American kick returner last year.
Fellow sophomores Ja’Kobi Lane, Makai Lemon and Duce Robinson give this offense a deep well of pass-catching juice.
The Trojans have also reworked their offensive line. Redshirt senior Jonah Monheim makes a much-anticipated move to center, paving the way for redshirt freshman Elijah Paige to debut at left tackle.
Paige is a 6-foot-7, 320-pound monster who should help the Trojans adjust to the physicality of the Big Ten.
Defensive outlook
The Trojans needed a defensive identity change after allowing 34.4 points per game last season, ranked 121st in the country.
Enter defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn, who led UCLA to a top-15 scoring defense in 2023. USC got to work in the transfer portal on the defensive side of the ball, bringing in talent to fit Lynn’s scheme.
In a group of five projected new starters via the portal, I’m most excited about former Oregon State safety Akili Arnold.
He ranked in the top 10 in coverage among all safeties last fall. Lynn also brought safety Kamari Ramsey to UCLA, which will help ease the transition to a new scheme in Los Angeles.
The player who might benefit most from Lynn’s hire is defensive lineman Bear Alexander, the former Georgia transfer. Don’t be shocked if he breaks out as an All-American candidate and pushes for early NFL draft consideration next year.
Schedule breakdown
My biggest concern with the Trojans this fall is the schedule. According to Action Network’s Collin Wilson, their slate is one of the top-30 most challenging in the country.
From Sept. 21 to Oct. 19, USC alternates weekly between home and road games with significant travel involved.
Betting on College Football?
Road games against Michigan, Minnesota and Maryland are interspersed with home games against Wisconsin and Penn State. That’s a brutal stretch of games.
The good news is that the Trojans aren’t expected to face any cold-weather games late in the season, as their November road games are against Washington and UCLA.
Still, a neutral-site game against LSU on Sunday and a home game against Notre Dame are challenging ways to spend out-of-conference scheduling.
Final verdict
The Trojans weren’t gifted an easy schedule in their first season in the Big Ten, but I still believe they’re being undervalued in the betting market.
Moss is poised to make the most of his opportunity with one of the most dynamic sets of skill-position talent in the country, and Lynn should be a transformative hire for the defense.
USC will be underdogs in two of its three non-conference games, including on Sunday against an overhauled LSU team, which is a 4.5-point favorite.
However, I see plenty of opportunities to pick up wins in conference play.
The Trojans avoid games against Ohio State, Oregon and Iowa, three of the most formidable defenses in the conference, which is a significant boon for their outlook.
Bet on an explosive offense and revamped defense resulting in more than 5.5 wins in conference play for USC this fall.
Best Bet: USC over 5.5 conference wins (-130, DraftKings)
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