America is in the throes of a healthcare crisis that is unfolding quietly in doctor’s offices, hospital corridors, and small-town clinics across the country. Or maybe not so quietly: If you’ve tried recently to get an appointment with your primary care physician or certain specialists, you may have found that the wait can be weeks. The specter of a looming physician shortage is casting a long shadow over our nation’s well-being, threatening to upend the healthcare system on which we rely.

A recent report from the Association of American Medical Colleges paints a sobering picture. It projects a shortfall of between 13,500 and 86,000 physicians in 2036, including a shortage of between 20,200 and 40,400 primary care physicians, ranges that underscore the uncertainty surrounding the future of the medical workforce.

The deficit of physicians will strain medical resources, extend wait times, and possibly compromise the quality of care for millions of people. Increasingly, instead of physicians, patients are having to settle for appointments with nurses or nurse practitioners.

This isn’t a new problem, but it’s one that’s rapidly worsening. For years, policymakers have nibbled at the edges of the problem, offering half-measures and temporary fixes. It’s like watching a slow-motion car crash, knowing the inevitable collision is coming but being powerless to prevent it.

The latest attempt to stem the tide has come from the 118th Congress, which has thrown a few bones to medical schools and training programs. But these efforts are too little, too late. Although additional residency spots and funding are welcome, they are far from sufficient to address the magnitude of the crisis.

The problem is multifaceted. An aging population with increasing healthcare needs is driving demand for doctors. At the same time, a significant portion of the physician workforce is nearing retirement age.

The crisis extends beyond mere numbers. Primary care physicians, the backbone of the healthcare system, are particularly in demand, but there are also shocking accounts of the unavailability of specialists. A physician colleague of mine recently told me about friends of his who have an infant with a newly recognized neurological problem. The next available appointment with a pediatric neurologist? March 2025!

Rural areas, already struggling with healthcare disparities, are facing a looming crisis of their own. It’s no exaggeration to say that the overall health and well-being of the nation are in jeopardy.

Making matters worse, the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated the crisis. The surge in patients, coupled with the burnout experienced by healthcare workers, has strained the system to its breaking point. And although the pandemic has passed its peak, surges of infections, emergency department visits, hospitalizations, and new cases of long COVID continue to occur. (We are experiencing one of those surges now, especially in the Western United States.) Thus, COVID’s impact on the medical workforce will be felt for years to come.

Solutions to this crisis will need to be multifaceted and to take advantage of market forces and technology. This includes increasing the number of medical school graduates by increasing acceptance rates, expanding residency programs, and adopting laws to allow physicians to be licensed to practice in more than one state or be licensed in other states more quickly.

Other solutions include expanding telehealth care, which would enhance competition, reduce transportation expenditures, and improve access to quality care in underserved locations; easing or expediting the process for accepting foreign-trained doctors, with appropriate testing procedures; and empowering non-physician healthcare providers to take on expanded roles.

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Solving the problem will also require reversing the Biden administration’s deep cuts in Medicare compensation to physicians, which were made even in the face of high inflation, and leveraging the use of technologies such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing.

To avert a healthcare catastrophe, we need aggressive investment in education, research, and innovation. The future of our nation’s health depends on it.

Henry I. Miller, a physician and molecular biologist, is the Glenn Swogger distinguished fellow at the American Council on Science and Health. He was the founding director of the FDA’s Office of Biotechnology. Find Henry on X @HenryIMiller.