Minnesota has been a bastion of liberalism for a long time. I know; I grew up there.

From Senators Al Franken and Amy Klobuchar to Rep. Ilhan Omar and Attorney General Keith Ellison, Minnesotans are good, hard-working people who love to elect leftist politicians. They embrace their ideas. 

This is why the concept of Donald Trump convincing Minnesotans to vote for him and winning the North Star state in the 2028 election seems nearly impossible. Nearly.

But at a rally over the weekend to a crowd of approximately 8,000 people in a St. Cloud hockey arena, Trump showed he has become increasingly popular. That’s quite a showing for a state that consistently elects progressives to represent them.

At the rally, Trump discussed President Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, who he referred to as a “radical leftist,” and warned Minnesotans that under Harris, border issues will worsen.

“In Minnesota, you will have people you don’t have now,” Trump said, suggesting that about 20 million undocumented migrants would enter the country under a Harris presidency.

In December 2023, 250,000 migrants flooded the border under Biden’s lax policies, a record for his term. (For Trump’s prediction to come true, nearly double that number would need to cross every month for four years.)

Trump sounded confident about Minnesota and also said “if they don’t cheat, we will win this state easily.”

Trump won’t win Minnesota easily, but it is easy to see why he thinks it could happen even though a Republican running for president hasn’t clinched Minnesota in 50 years. Not even Ronald Reagan. Although the state has elected Reform, Independents and Republicans for Gov. like Jesse Ventura, Tim Pawlenty and Arne Carlson in the last 40 years.

Before Kamala Harris jumped into the race, Trump and Biden were nearly tied in Minnesota, according to polls. Even that feat is extraordinary. However, Trump has been here before. In 2016, Trump lost Minnesota by less than two percentage points. In 2020, Trump lost by about a quarter of a million votes. Of course, Trump claimed the loss was due to fraud.

Things have shifted since Harris entered the race. New local polling shows that there’s a significant gap between the two candidates, with Harris leading, 50% to 40%.

If true, it wouldn’t be impossible for Trump to bridge the gap between himself and Harris, but it will be hard. Not only because Harris is a progressive, but because she is precisely the kind of progressive Minnesotans like. Minnesotans have a history of electing candidates known for being diverse and leftist. In 2023, the state legislature elected the most diverse set of law makers out of any other state, including members of the LGBTQ+ community and people of color. Kamala Harris is a black female who has been vocal about her desire to be inclusive and diverse.

Minnesotans may feel good electing diverse lawmakers, but it has come with consequences, including a state that’s socially liberal and highly taxed, among other issues. 

If Trump could actually win Minnesota, it might signal a significant shift for down ballot politicians and measures. Over time, could the state slowly shift to more moderate and center-right lawmakers and ideas? This seems like wishful thinking, but it’s not entirely out of the question.

The fact that Trump was polling well until Harris came along suggests Minnesotans could be persuaded. While it might not change election results a lot --- Minnesota has 10 electoral college votes --- it would be a big change for a state that has voted for Democrats for decades.