A disturbing new poll from Rasmussen Reports found that four-in-ten voters believe that a second American civil war is possible within the next five years.

The survey found that while roughly half of likely voters believe a civil war is unlikely, more than 40 percent of respondents believe that internal conflict is “somewhat” or “very likely” within the next five years.

In total, 16 percent of likely voters believe that a civil war is “very likely” to occur within the next five years, while 25 percent said it is “somewhat” likely. A small plurality of voters said the possibility is “not very likely” and 20 percent said it was not likely at all. An additional 10 percent indicated that they are unsure.

When asked about potential triggers of a civil war, 37 percent said the possibility is greater if President Biden is re-elected in November, while 25 percent said the same for a Trump victory. An additional 30 percent of voters do not believe the 2024 election will impact the possibility, while 8 percent remain unsure.

How likely is a civil war in the next 5 years?

-LIKELY-
All – 41%
Men – 35%
Women – 45%
18-39 – 56%
40-64 – 34%
65+ – 34%
White – 39%
Black – 46%
Hisp – 51%
Dem – 35%
Rep – 54%
Ind – 32% https://t.co/mYiliTo1ca

— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) May 2, 2024

In 2018, a previous poll found that 31 percent of likely voters at the time said it was “likely that the United States will experience a second civil war sometime in the next five years.”

While both results are troubling, expectation of a coming civil war is not exactly new. During former President Barrack Obama’s second term, Rasmussen found that 53 percent of likely voters were expecting some level of violence due to the nation’s polarization.