Republicans are beginning to get nervous that their election day turnout is not where it needs to be in critical battleground states, just days after they were projecting confidence that they would hit the same election day advantage they had in 2020. Many had warned that the GOP was “cannibalizing” their election day vote by urging their supporters to casts ballots early and by mail, and it appears that such an event has transpired. 

The GOP’s get-out-the-vote efforts were largely outsourced to independent expenditure groups that are close to President Trump. Billionaire Elon Musk set up his America PAC to knock doors in swing states, and conservative activist group Turning Point USA is still at the helm of many Republican get-out-the-vote efforts across the country. 

Despite the money and time spent on election day turnout, the GOP seems nervous that their plan is not working. 

“Turnout is mixed and not where we want it to be. We need more people to vote. We can’t let turnout flatline. Text everyone you know. Make more noise. We need more,” wrote the president of Turning Point USA, Charlie Kirk, who has been tasked with much of Trump’s get-out-the-vote efforts in critical battleground states. 

Pennsylvania is an especially positive picture for Democrats as of this writing. Young people and students are turning out in record numbers, with Philadelphia’s 27th Ward — home to the University of Pennsylvania — already at 110 percent of its turnout four years ago. The city’s 20th Ward, which is home to Temple University, is at 120 percent of 2020 turnout. Citywide at Philadelphia, voters had hit 87 percent of their 2020 turnout with several hours left to vote. 

A more stunning result from Philadelphia may end up being the turnout among Hispanic voters, especially Puerto Ricans who may have been offended by the comments at Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally about the island being “garbage.” 

In four of the city’s most heavily Hispanic wards — the 16th, 19th, 37th, and 43rd wards — turnout had surpassed 2020 levels by early afternoon. In those four wards live tens of thousands of Puerto Rican voters. 

In Nevada — a state Ms. Harris was widely expected to lose until a prediction from “the oracle” of the state’s politics — Democrats are making major election day gains after falling flat in the early and mail vote period. By Tuesday afternoon, Republican turnout was at just 42 percent, despite hitting 50 percent just two years earlier when they lost a winnable Senate seat and barely won the governorship. 

By Tuesday afternoon, Democrats made up 30 percent of in-person election day voters, while Republicans made up just 37 percent. Four years ago, Democrats only made up 22 percent of in-person election day voting when President Biden won the state. 

Even those Republicans who aren’t directly involved in canvassing and get-out-the-vote efforts seem to be panicking as the numbers roll in. “Pay no attention to any exit polling. Pay no attention to any early numbers. Just VOTE,” wrote conservative commentator Ben Shapiro. 

It certainly isn’t over for Trump and his party, to be sure. The former chief economist for Senator Portman, Brian Riedl, warned that turnout numbers and exit polls in 2004 showed a comfortable lead for Secretary Kerry when he was the Democratic nominee, only to fall short just hours later. 

“Back in 2004, the election-day exit polls and boots on the ground showed massive John Kerry turnout surging towards a historic landslide win (causing Bush to collapse to 9% in the prediction markets). It was all wrong, and Bush won,” Mr. Riedl writes. “Best to ignore the election daytime noise.”

Democrats, on the other hand, still seemed exuberant about the spike in turnout across the country. 

“I think our field effort is really unmatched over the last decade, and what we’re seeing is just, sort of anecdotal right now, but extra high turnout in the early part of the day,” Governor Shapiro said at a campaign stop on Tuesday. “I feel really good.”

The chairman of the Philadelphia Democratic Party, Bob Brady, who served for decades in the U.S. House, echoed those sentiments in a brief talk with reporters. “Voter turnout is extremely high,”Mr. Brady said. “I’ve been doing elections for 50 years chair and I’ve been chairman for 40 years and now it’s the highest we’ve ever seen for this point.”

“Turnout is off the charts. All across Michigan. That’s it,” wrote Michigan’s secretary of state, Jocelyn Benson. “That’s the tweet.”