As the 2024 presidential election inches closer, a new Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll reveals that Ohio voters are solidifying their preferences – and it may spell trouble for Vice President Kamala Harris.

While many have already made up their minds, the poll indicates strong leanings across the state, with clear divides on job performance, party loyalty, and candidate favorability. The poll finds former President Donald Trump leading Harris by a comfortable margin, capturing 54% of the vote to Harris’s 42%.

With just 2% of respondents leaning toward third-party candidates and 2% still undecided, Ohio’s swing state status may be shifting decisively red. Job approval for current leadership is a mixed bag, especially when it comes to President Biden.

Of those polled, 58% disapprove of Biden’s performance, while only 33% express approval. In contrast, GOP Governor Mike DeWine fares somewhat better, with 38% of respondents approving of his job performance and 34% disapproving. Interestingly, nearly 29% remain neutral or undecided about DeWine.

Party affiliation paints an equally telling picture. The poll shows that 39% of respondents identify as Republican, while 31% align with the Democratic Party, and 30% have no particular affiliation. The tilt toward the GOP, coupled with high favorability ratings for Trump, positions the former president well as Election Day nears.

The poll also delves into perceptions of Harris and Trump on a personal level. Harris, facing her first major solo test on the national stage, sees divided opinions among Ohioans. About 44% of respondents view her favorably to some degree, while nearly 49% view her unfavorably, with 30% holding a “very unfavorable” opinion. Trump, however, garners a more favorable perception, with 54% of respondents viewing him positively. Though 41% view him unfavorably, his net favorability easily surpasses Harris’s.

In addition to the presidential race, Ohio’s Senate contest is heating up. When asked about their choice between incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown and his Republican challenger Bernie Moreno, respondents are split – 48% express support for Moreno, while 45% favor Brown, with 6% undecided. Among undecided voters, Moreno appears to have a slight edge, with 60% indicating a lean toward him.

Top issues for Ohio voters highlight familiar concerns. The economy remains the number one issue, with 44% citing it as their primary concern. Immigration and healthcare round out the top three, at 11% and 6%, respectively. Notably, 13% of voters identify “threats to democracy” as their top concern, a trend that could impact perceptions of both parties as they campaign across the state.

Once a quintessential swing state, Ohio is increasingly leaning Republican, signaling a significant shift in the electoral landscape. Over the past few election cycles, Ohio has steadily moved away from its battleground status, with Republicans gaining ground in both statewide and national races

Trump’s 12-point lead suggests a difficult road ahead for the Harris campaign. For Trump, who carried Ohio in both 2016 and 2020, this poll reinforces the state’s potential as a reliable red stronghold well into the future.

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