Republicans are trying to downplay a shocking Saturday poll result out of Iowa that shows Vice President Harris leading President Trump in the state, which went for the GOP by several points in the last two presidential elections. This comes as other polls show Ms. Harris opening a small lead in critical battleground states just 48 hours before election day. 

The Iowa survey from the Des Moines Register and pollster J. Ann Selzer found that Ms. Harris leads Trump by three points in the state, 47 percent to 44 percent. It’s a remarkable result for the Democrats, considering President Biden was losing to Trump by 18 points in June in the same poll from Ms. Selzer and Trump led Ms. Harris by four points in September. 

Ms. Selzer is considered to be one of the best pollsters in the country, with a track record to prove it. In the last three presidential elections, her pre-election survey has accurately predicted the Iowa result within a two-point margin. In the 2022, 2020, and 2014 Senate races in the state, her poll came within one point of accurately predicting the winners of each of those contests. 

“No President has done more for FARMERS, and the Great State of Iowa, than Donald J. Trump. In fact, it’s not even close! All polls, except for one heavily skewed toward the Democrats by a Trump hater who called it totally wrong the last time, have me up, BY A LOT,” Trump said on Truth Social. 

Shortly after the poll was released, Trump’s own polling team, led by Tony Fabrizio, released a memo detailing alleged problems with the Selzer poll. Calling it an “outlier” poll compared to other surveys — like an Emerson College poll released Saturday that showed Trump up by 10 points in Iowa — Mr. Fabrizio writes that Ms. Selzer undercounted a sharp increase in Republican registration in the last four years and the strong early vote turnout from GOP voters. 

Iowa — once considered a pivotal swing state — is one of those midwestern states that has shifted sharply to the right in the Trump era. The state has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since 2008, hasn’t elected a Democrat as governor since 2006, and all four of the state’s congressional seats are currently held by the GOP. 

Iowa conservatives who in the past have praised Ms. Selzer were quick to turn on her on Saturday after the favorable result for Ms. Harris was released. “Don’t ever quote anymore Des Moines Register polls to me ever again. @jaselzer has just completely flushed down the toilet whatever was left of her credibility. Willful malfeasance,” said a popular Iowa conservative radio host, Steve Deace, on X. The president of the FAMiLY Leader, Bob Vander Plaats — who is seen as the most influential Christian leader in the state — called the Selzer survey a “desired narrative poll.”

Beyond the poll from Ms. Selzer that delighted Democrats on Saturday, the New York Times and Siena College released their last survey of the 2024 race on Sunday and it shows Ms. Harris with a slight lead in critical battleground states that would lead to an Electoral College victory. 

The Times–Siena poll finds Ms. Harris leading Trump in Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Georgia, though all states are within the margin of error. She is up by three points in Nevada, two points in both North Carolina and Wisconsin, and one point in Georgia. Pennsylvania and Michigan are tied, while Trump holds a four-point lead in Arizona.

If the poll turns out to be accurate on Tuesday, Ms. Harris would carry the Electoral College with just Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Georgia in her column, along with other states that are considered solidly in her column.