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Penn State has been here before. So many times before.
The Nittany Lions were 7-0 in 2017, before losing to Ohio State. They were 4-0 in 2018, before again losing to Ohio State. They were 8-0 in 2019, shortly before their Big Ten title hopes were ended by Ohio State. They were 6-0 last season, before suffering another loss to Ohio State.
Now, Penn State is 7-0 and the No. 3 team in the nation, awaiting the arrival of No. 4 Ohio State.
This season is different because there is less pressure, because the introduction of the 12-team postseason means the Nittany Lions are a near-lock to reach the playoff for the first time regardless of Saturday’s outcome.
At some point, Penn State is due to break through, to end a losing streak to the Buckeyes — a la Jim Harbaugh — that dates back to 2017.
But this year may not be that year.
Penn State could be without starting quarterback Drew Allar, who suffered a knee injury last week. Though backup Beau Pribula played well in the win over Wisconsin, the Buckeyes’ second-ranked defense is an unfair assignment for a sophomore’s first start under center. The best career performances of Ohio State’s Will Howard have come during his six previous starts against top 10 teams.
Ohio State also faces an elite defense, but one which hasn’t yet faced a top-30 offense and just one top-50 passing attack, which came when 13th-place USC put up 30 and led by two touchdowns.
Coach James Franklin’s failures haven’t been limited to matchups with the Buckeyes. He is 2-17 against top-10 teams at Penn State, while Ryan Day has only ever lost twice before the regular-season finale.
Ohio State’s issues against Nebraska last week were understandable in a letdown from the last-second loss to Oregon, with this look-ahead game waiting.
Always buy low with the Buckeyes (-3.5).
BOISE STATE (-23.5) over San Diego State
It looked like Oregon was overrated, needing a walk-off field goal to get past the Broncos. It turns out that the Broncos may be well-positioned to make the most of an invitation to the first 12-team dance.
Duke (+20.5) over MIAMI
Manny Diaz has waited three years for this moment. The new Duke coach — formerly of the Hurricanes — has surely saved some looks for the nation’s top-ranked offense. The Blue Devils (6-2) rank second in the nation in takeaways (2.7 per game) and tackles for a loss (8.9 per game).
ARKANSAS (+7) over Ole Miss
The Hogs shouldn’t be overlooked any longer. They held a fourth-quarter lead against the only unbeaten team in SEC play. They are the only team to beat Tennessee. They have won their past two visits from the Rebels and never lost by more than a touchdown to Lane Kiffin.
Air Force (+22.5) over ARMY
The number is justified, but still too large for this rivalry. Air Force’s Troy Calhoun and Army’s Jeff Monken have split 10 career meetings. Five of the past six games have been decided by single-digits.
MICHIGAN (+14.5) over Oregon
It may end up being a statement about how much things can change in a year. Or, it may serve as a reminder of the power of trench play, of the Big House, of pride.
Florida (+16.5) over Georgia
The Bulldogs no longer walk the field like Michael Myers through Haddonfield. What was once the most feared defense in college football ranks eighth in its conference. A quarterback (Carson Beck) once projected to go No. 1 in the next draft has thrown eight picks in the past four games. While Georgia has covered just one of six games as a favorite this season, Florida’s new starting quarterback DJ Lagway gives the improving team — winners of three of its past four, with the lone loss in overtime to No. 7 Tennessee — a significantly higher ceiling, witnessed in Florida’s 48-point effort against Kentucky’s top-20 defense.
Texas Tech (+13.5) over IOWA STATE
The Cyclones are 7-0 for the second time in school history, but can’t afford to sleep on the Red Raiders’ top-20 offense. If Texas Tech can avoid an early hole, running back Tahj Brooks — ranked third in the nation with 132.1 yards rushing per game — should have a day against an injury-plagued defense, which ranks 114th in the nation in yards allowed per carry (5.2).
Indiana (-7.5) over MICHIGAN STATE
The Hoosiers enter November with the third-best scoring margin in the nation, representing the first team in 26 years that has not trailed in any of their first eight games of the season. The beauty of the 12-team playoff is that Cinderellas can even emerge from the Power Four.
Kansas State (-13) over HOUSTON
The lowest-scoring offense in the country isn’t any better at home, averaging just over 14 points per game. Last year, the Wildcats claimed a 41-0 win over the Cougars.
CLEMSON (-10.5) over Louisville
Cade Klubnik’s long-shot Heisman bid should get a boost against a suspect secondary that has allowed seven passing touchdowns in the past two games. The Clemson quarterback has 20 touchdown passes and two interceptions in the past six games.
SOUTH CAROLINA (+2.5) over Texas A&M
The line looks like a misprint until you remember the Gamecocks were on the verge of upsetting Alabama and LSU. South Carolina — which has covered three of four games as an underdog — may finally be able to finish the job, coming off a bye, with the Aggies still celebrating their win over LSU.
IOWA (-3) over Wisconsin
The Hawkeyes are different at home. With dual-threat Brendan Sullivan stepping in for Cade McNamara, the 104th-ranked offense may be, too, as last week’s 40-point outburst against Northwestern suggests.
Betting on College Football?
Kentucky (+16.5) over TENNESSEE
It’s admittedly difficult to envision how the Wildcats will score, but Mark Stoops has a remarkable track record of dragging more talented teams down to Kentucky’s level. It has already happened twice this season, with a 20-17 road upset of Ole Miss and a 13-12 loss to Georgia. Tennessee is easy to lure into a low-scoring grind, averaging less than 23 points per game in SEC play.
Pittsburgh (+7.5) over SMU
The undefeated Panthers are being underestimated again, but they have responded well to the slaps in the face, going 6-1 against the spread. If the Panthers enter the red zone — where they score more than 90 percent of the time — they should find great success against a defense that’s allowed opponents to score touchdowns on 83.3 percent of possessions inside the 20.
Best bets: Arkansas, Indiana, Florida
Season: 70-64-1 (8-18-1)
2014-23 record: 1,272-1,206-30
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