In the Real Clear Politics average of national polls, six of the nine most recent polls are tied, or the candidates are separated by a single percentage point. The results in the swing states are similar. In five of the seven swing states, including here in Pennsylvania, the two candidates are separated by 1 point or less. So, the poll numbers of a tied race confirm one’s observations and vice versa.

A lot of Republicans would not buy that argument. Last Friday’s newsletter, “Republican irrational exuberance?” explored the fact that many Republicans believe Trump has the election in the bag and that it might not even be close. Yes, there are signs that the race shifted a little in Trump’s favor about three weeks ago. On Thursday, after trailing for a long time, Trump has a tiny lead, 0.4 points, in the aforementioned Real Clear Politics average of polls. That is an inconsequential advantage, but when Republicans look at where Trump stood at this moment in both 2016, when he was 1.3 points behind Hillary Clinton, and 2020, when he was 7.4 points behind Joe Biden, they find cause for optimism.

Still, it’s tied. And just looking around will show you an intensity on Harris’s side that appears to match the intensity on Trump’s. The crowd she drew for her “closing argument” speech in Washington, D.C., was huge. Even if her campaign’s estimates of 75,000 were exaggerated, it appears she drew at least 60,000 people. Yes, it was in the core of one of the bluest areas in America. In 2020, Biden won the District of Columbia with 93% of the vote, which is approaching North Korean standards. The city’s surrounding suburbs are also very blue. Still, getting 60,000 people to show up is a significant sign of intensity. It did not have the measure of audacity and showmanship of Trump’s event at Madison Square Garden, in super-blue Manhattan, but no one should ignore the fact that Harris drew such a massive crowd.

In Harrisburg on Wednesday, Harris appeared in a giant exposition building at the Pennsylvania Farm Show Complex. The building was so huge that the campaign curtained off about a third of it for the rally and still easily fit maybe 4,000 to 5,000 people inside, where the room smelled, shall we say, a lot like a farm. 

The Democrats who turned out on a weekday afternoon really loved Harris. As we waited for the rally to begin, I asked a dozen women — there was a definite gender gap in the crowd — what they liked best about Harris. They all gave glowing answers: “Her positive energy.” “Her willingness to include everyone in the conversation and the party.” “She’s brilliant and kind, and I really do think she cares about the people.” “I like the joy she brought.” “Her respect for institutions.” “She represents modern America — it’s been centuries and centuries of the same people, and it’s time to change.” “She protects access to women’s own bodies and bodily autonomy.” “She’s a reasonable person and is going to protect democracy.” “Her inclusivity and representation for all.” “She’s honest.” “Her character.” “Her decency and honesty.”

And so on. Nearly all of the answers focused on what the voters saw as Harris’s attributes, as opposed to any specific campaign pledge she has made. And, of course, many of those same voters might have had no opinion of Harris six months ago. But even if their newfound love for the Democratic candidate is just a measure of temporary partisanship, it’s still a positive for Harris.

In Harrisburg, as happens nearly everywhere else she goes, the cheering when Harris appeared went on so long that she appeared somewhat sheepish in asking the crowd to quiet down. Her 25-minute speech was boilerplate, as it always is, but she did show indications that finally, at the end of the campaign, she is figuring out how to frame her comments about the affordability crisis that has burdened people during her time as vice president and that remains the voters’ No. 1 concern. After a canned line about how Trump will walk into the Oval Office with an enemies list and how she will walk in with a to-do list, Harris said, “And at the top of my list is bringing down your cost of living that will be my focus every single day as president.” The actions she pledges, such as the “first-ever federal ban on price gouging on groceries,” are still either ridiculous, irrelevant, or inadequate, but at least she is learning how to discuss the issue, even if she will never acknowledge her complicity in exacerbating the affordability problem.

Harris still lapses into word salad, but her supporters don’t mind. And even when she does not go full word salad and instead shifts into lefty-speak, they think that’s great, too. She says things like, “And please, in these next six days, let us be intentional about building community,” and they just eat it up. The bottom line is at this moment, for the purposes of this election, these Democrats love Kamala Harris. That love will continue through Election Day. (A large percentage of the crowd in Harrisburg had already voted but still came to see Harris.)

Part of this deep, if momentary, well of affection for Harris comes from the fact that she rescued these voters from Biden. None of the voters I talked to would say anything negative about the president — they all maintained that he had done a great job. And most didn’t want to say anything about the still-obscure process by which a powerful and secretive group of Democratic Party power brokers muscled the president out of the race. But still, they are very, very happy with the results. 

One woman did concede that she had been apprehensive about Biden’s reelection bid. “I was hoping for another choice,” she said, “but he decided to run. After his debate with Trump, I was very disappointed, and I was hoping that this would happen. And it did. And that gave everybody energy and hope.”

The bottom line is that there is an extraordinary amount of voter enthusiasm and intensity behind Harris at the moment. Some Republicans look at big Trump rallies and assume that there has to be less passion on the other side. That’s not the case. It doesn’t mean that Harris will win, but that enthusiasm and the poll numbers make it clear that this election is wide open with less than a week to go.