A Tuesday poll showed Arizona Senate Republican candidate Kari Lake pulling ahead of Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego, breaking with recent data showing Lake trailing by a significant margin.

The Data Orbital survey, which consisted of responses from 550 likely voters and had a margin of error of 4.26%, found Lake receiving 45.2% support while Gallego received 44.5%, potentially representing a huge shift in the swing state race that has seen the Democratic candidate maintain a steady lead. However, the poll result could also be an outlier, with a Tuesday CNN survey of 781 likely voters finding Lake trailing by roughly 8%, and RealClear Polling (RCP) showing Gallego leading by 4% on average.

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Lake has consistently underperformed former President Donald Trump, with Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by an average of 2.5% in the Grand Canyon State, according to RCP. The Democrats have spent $88.2 million on advertising for the Senate race since Labor Day, compared to just $29.7 million for Republicans, Politico reported on Oct. 18.

Lake’s platform emphasizes border security, fresh water access, energy independence and reducing inflation, among a variety of other policy initiatives.

Immigration has been a hot-button issue in the Arizona senate rate, with Gallego adopting a more centrist stance on the matter since his campaign began. In August 2023, the Democratic congressman voiced support for Title 42, a Trump-era public health order that expelled certain migrants, marking a major shift from 2015 when he introduced legislation that would eliminate the term “illegal alien” from federal law.

The Democratic congressman has tried to distance himself from the Biden-Harris administration on the immigration issue, remarking in August that the White House hasn’t done enough in support of border security.

“I think there’s a lot of Democrats that don’t understand you can be for border security and for immigration reform,” Gallego told Axios.

Another key issue in the Arizona senate race has been abortion, particularly after the Arizona Supreme Court on April 9 permitted an 1864 law to be enforced that effectively banned abortion except when the life of the mother is in danger. When Gallego stated that Lake was “incredibly thrilled” to ban abortion, Lake responded by noting the Democratic congressman had left his wife when she was nine months pregnant.

A report released by the Washington Free Beacon on Oct. 17 found that Gallego not only filed for divorce from his wife when she was “likely to give birth any day,” but also wanted her to pay his attorney’s fees.

The Gallego and Lake campaigns did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

LifeNews Note: Owen Klinsky writes for Daily Caller News Foundation, where this column originally appeared.