Elections have consequences, especially at the Supreme Court.

Perhaps the most consequential impact Donald Trump’s presidency has had on the lives of Americans is from his Supreme Court nominations. While only serving one term, he got to appoint three justices. Not since President Reagan did a commander-in-chief make so many successful appointments. How many will the next president get, and who might they be? Let’s look at the reality a President Harris or President Trump might face regarding the Court.

The next president will have at least one Supreme Court nomination. That’s a reasonably safe prediction because only five presidents in US history haven’t appointed anyone to the Court. Even Gerry Ford got one nomination during his 2.5-year term in office. The average age of those currently serving on the bench is almost 64 (63.8). The three oldest are Clarence Thomas, 76; Samuel Alito, 74; and Sonia Sotomayor, who is 70. These three are the most likely to leave the Court in the next four years, depending on who’s occupying the White House.

Supreme Chess

The Court schedule may seem less than intense because it takes a three-month break from hearing cases each year. That’s deceiving, however. Any justice who wishes to stay on top of the Court’s work must be fully engaged with all they have to take in and analyze. That’s just on the surface, though. A critical question is who will replace them. Donald Trump has appointed three, and it stands to reason that any new appointments would look similar to those already chosen. That’s likely a comforting thought to Justices Thomas and Alito but probably fearsome to Justice Sotomayor. And the obverse must be valid in the event of a Kamala Harris victory in November.

If Trump wins, Justices Thomas and Alito are solid bets for retirement. Trump can only serve one more term – so if either wants a replacement who is likely to share some of their core beliefs about the Constitution, they can step down with some confidence. Both of their families have been the subject of vicious attacks by progressives, and both have faced ongoing campaigns against their characters. The prospect of seeing younger, similar judges replace them, who could serve for the next 30 years, might be quite appealing.

Should Kamala Harris be sworn in this coming January, Justice Sotomayor will probably consider her legacy. While 70 is getting younger every year, Sotomayor, unfortunately, has some more profound health challenges than most, i.e., type 1 diabetes. Harris would have four years, but then, who knows? There could be a two-term Republican after that. Based on her opinions and statements outside of court, Justice Sotomayor seems most motivated by politics, so she would be more likely than not to time her exit based on who might replace her. She has been accused of monetizing her position more than any justice in history. She discovered a writing talent later in life, making millions off of book sales, all after joining the High Court.

Ruth Bader Ginsburg: Conservative Hero?

A hero of the left, Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, delivered right-wing and libertarian legal advocates their most significant victory in a generation with her decision not to retire. Justice Ginsburg refused to resign in 2014 when she was 81, Obama was president, and Democrats held the Senate. Dorothy Samuels, the legal editorial writer for The New York Times, said: “I was struck by how many people I spoke with, including friends, acquaintances, and former clerks, felt she should have resigned at the time and that her staying on was terribly self-centered – a view I share.”