A traditionally blue New England state may be going red on November 5th as enthusiasm for former President Donald Trump continues to expand the electoral map further than any Republican in modern history has managed.

New Hampshire may go for Trump next week, according to a poll conducted by Praecones Analytica and the New Hampshire Journal. Newsweek reported that Trump has taken a 0.4% lead over Harris, or 50.2% to the vice president’s 49.8%. The survey of 622 registered voters was in the field from October 24th to the 26th, encompassing most of the campaign season’s biggest moments with the exception of Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally on Sunday night. If those results hold, President Trump would become the first Republican presidential candidate to carry the Granite State since George W. Bush in 2000.

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NEW HAMPSHIRE
Praecones Analytica / @NewHampJournal poll:

Trump 50.2% (+0.4)
Harris 49.8%

622 RV, 10/24-26

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) October 28, 2024

Trump has not led in a single New Hampshire poll since late July when the same consortium showed him leading President Joe Biden by a single point, according to FiveThirtyEight. That the embattled Democrat managed to hold on to his lead nearly a month after giving the worst debate performance of his life indicates just how far out of play the Trump campaign believed New Hampshire to be. Now, with Harris’s numbers steadily declining and momentum on Trump’s side during the final week, Republicans must consider whether they want to divert resources from the traditional seven swing states and make a play there.

Down the ballot, New Hampshire Republicans are feeling optimistic about Kelly Ayotte’s chances in the race for governor: she leads Democrat Joyce Craig 52-48%. Ayotte, a former U.S. senator who lost her reelection in 2016, has posted modest but steady leads for most of the year. During her 2016 campaign, Ayotte kept Trump at arm’s length, denouncing him for the Access Hollywood tape but ultimately losing to now-Sen. Maggie Hassen. This time around, however, Ayotte has been vocally more pro-Trump, encouraging his campaign to make a play for New Hampshire and posting a big win in the GOP primary over a more conservative opponent.

Betting markets give Harris an 80% chance of carrying the state, but other polling firms are showing a tightening race which may upend the presidential contest. Emerson College last week reported that Harris was only up by 3%, and Trump spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt has been bullish about his chances there. “Granite Staters will not vote for dangerously liberal Kamala Harris, whose policies as vice president have increased our energy bills and created the most unaffordable housing market in New Hampshire’s history,” Leavitt told Newsweek.

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