This article was originally published on Liberty Nation - Politics. You can read the original article HERE
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Trump claims the lead nationally and, at the same time, maintains his overall lead in the crucial battleground states. Team Harris is in full panic mode, and it seems the betting markets are sensing the stress. With just eight days to go before the election, Liberty Nation News wants you to have the full facts. We update this page daily, so please bookmark it and keep checking back.
National Polling
According to the RealClearPolitics average of polls, Donald Trump has the lead, but only by the slimmest of possible margins: 0.1%. Due to the margin of error inherent in each poll, this is an effective dead heat. So how best to determine an accurate prediction model?
Taking a slightly different analytical approach this weekend, The Daily Mail spoke with top economist Christophe Barraud of Market Securities, who has been rated by Bloomberg as the “most accurate” at economic predictions. He weighed in on his predictions for the November 5 election. He says the most likely outcome is a “Red Wave,” with Trump taking the presidency and Republicans winning back the Senate – leaving a toss-up in the House. His second most likely prediction is that Trump wins the presidency but ends up with a split Congress.
Battle for the Battlegrounds
The superb RealClearPolitics average of battleground polls grants Donald Trump a lead in all seven states. An average here suggests Trump is now ahead across these subsections by 0.9%. While this is valuable data, it is worth narrowing the lens. Liberty Nation News opted to take the average of only the five most recent surveys. We feel this provides a more up-to-date snapshot of the race as it stands today. Using this rubric:
- Arizona – Trump +1.2%
- Georgia – Trump +1.4%
- Michigan – Harris +0.2%
- Nevada – Trump +0.6%
- North Carolina – Trump +1.2%
- Pennsylvania – Trump +0.8%
- Wisconsin – Tie
Overall, Donald Trump has an average lead of 0.7% over the seven key swing states. Races tighten in Arizona and Georgia but Harris fails to make any inroads with just one week to go.
If the election were held today, based on these numbers, Donald Trump would win 287 Electoral College votes, enough to win the presidency – with ten votes still as a toss-up.
Betting on Election 2024
It is often the betting markets that prove most accurate when it comes to predicting electoral outcomes – and why wouldn’t they? It takes a high level of confidence to put one’s money on the line. On Election Day 2020, the odds* looked like this:
- Joe Biden: 4/7 (-175)
- Donald Trump: 6/4 (+150)
And the cash players turned out to be right. So, what do the gamblers have to say about November 5 this year?
- Donald Trump: 23/35 (-151.25)
- Kamala Harris: 14/9 (+156)
Trump’s probability of winning the election sits at 60.24% compared to Harris’ at 39.06%. In the last 24 hours, bets placed on Trump over Harris were 10 times the cash value.
- Donald Trump to win between 270 and 299 EC votes – 9/4 (+225) or a 30.77% probability
- Kamala Harris to win between 270 and 299 EC votes – 10/3 (+333) or a 23.09% probability
- Donald Trump to win between 300 and 329 EC votes – 9/4 (+225) or a 30.77% probability
- Kamala Harris to win between 300 and 329 EC votes – 5/1 (+500) or a 16.67% probability
Significantly, according to the betting markets, the two most likely scenarios for this election remains that Trump wins between 300 and 329 EC votes, or that Trump gets more than the required 270 but fewer than 300.
To be a one-stop shop for all things Election 2024, Liberty Nation News will update this page every day with the latest polling info, betting data, and campaign news.* Betting odds explained: Betting odds are displayed here in the British format, known as fractional odds, and the American format, often called moneyline odds. With fractional odds, the second number represents the amount of money bet, and the first number is the return. 3/5 means a winning bet of $5 would yield a $3 profit. Moneyline odds show a minus (-) or plus (+) symbol for favorites and underdogs, respectively. The favorite may have odds of -300, meaning somebody would have to bet $300 in order to win $100. An underdog might have odds of +250, meaning a person would win $250 on a $100 wager.
Read More on Liberty Nation News’ Election Coverage:
The Quadrennial Question: Can We Trust the Polls and Pundits?
Family Feud: Media Zeroes In on White House Warfare
Kamala’s Existential Crisis: Minority Voters Edging Toward Trump
Liberty Nation does not endorse candidates, campaigns, or legislation, and this presentation is no endorsement.
This article was originally published by Liberty Nation - Politics. We only curate news from sources that align with the core values of our intended conservative audience. If you like the news you read here we encourage you to utilize the original sources for even more great news and opinions you can trust!
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