All the latest polls, betting odds, and news. Updated Daily.

Kamala’s national lead in polling collapses. Trump continues to make gains both nationally and in the all-important swing states. But do the betting odds tell a different story? With just 11 days to go before the election, Liberty Nation News wants you to have the full facts. We update this page daily, so please bookmark it and keep checking back.

National Polling

According to the RealClearPolitics average of polls, Kamala Harris’ campaign continues to lose ground each day. Her average advantage has sunk to just 0.2% – a 0.7% drop since yesterday. This comes on the heels of two major polls, one from The Wall Street Journal and the other from Forbes/HarrisX, which give Donald Trump a three-point and a two-point lead, respectively. These surveys seem indicative of a swing towards the former president. Notably, of the last ten major polls, Trump has won five, and Harris has won five.

At the beginning of October, Kamala Harris enjoyed a comfortable lead of 2.2% over Donald Trump. Since she replaced Joe Biden as the nominee and entered the race, the polling has been almost entirely in her favor. And while her support level has remained reasonably steady, backing for the former president has continued to improve. This suggests that her base is already a baked-in number but that she is failing to draw in new supporters, something that Trump appears to be doing rather well.

Battle for the Battlegrounds

The superb RealClearPolitics average of battleground polls grants Donald Trump a lead in all seven states. An average here suggests Trump is now ahead across these subsections by 0.9%. While this is valuable data, it is worth narrowing the lens. Liberty Nation News opted to take the average of only the five most recent surveys. We feel this provides a more up-to-date snapshot of the race as it stands today. Using this rubric:

• Arizona – Trump +1.4%
• Georgia – Trump +1.8%
• Michigan – Harris +0.2%
• Nevada – Trump +0.6%
• North Carolina – Trump +0.6%
• Pennsylvania – Trump +0.8%
• Wisconsin – Trump +0.2%

Overall, Donald Trump has an average lead of 0.7% over the seven key swing states. The latest polling amounts to some significant swings. Trump lost ground in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, while still maintaining a slight edge. Michigan flipped to Harris, and North Carolina flipped back to Trump.

If the election were held today, based on these numbers, Donald Trump would win 293 Electoral College votes, enough to win the presidency.

Betting on Election 2024

It is often the betting markets that prove most accurate when it comes to predicting electoral outcomes – and why wouldn’t they? It takes a high level of confidence to put one’s money on the line. On Election Day 2020, the odds* looked like this:

• Joe Biden: 4/7 (-175)
• Donald Trump: 6/4 (+150)

And the cash players turned out to be right. So, what do the gamblers have to say about November 5 this year?

• Donald Trump: 17/24 (-140.85)
• Kamala Harris: 17/12 (+142)

Trump’s probability of winning the election sits at 58.48% compared to Harris’ at 41.32%. Other notable betting options being played include:

• Donald Trump to win between 270 and 299 EC votes – 11/4 (+275) or a 26.67% probability
• Kamala Harris to win between 270 and 299 EC votes – 10/3 (+333) or a 23.09%  probability
• Donald Trump to win between 300 and 329 EC votes – 15/8 (+188) or a 34.72% probability
• Kamala Harris to win between 300 and 329 EC votes – 9/2 (+450) or an 18.18% probability

Significantly, according to the betting markets, the most likely scenario for this election remains that Trump wins between 300 and 329 EC votes. The second most likely is that Trump gets more than the required 270 but fewer than 300.

* Betting odds explained: Betting odds are displayed here in the British format, known as fractional odds, and the American format, often called moneyline odds. With fractional odds, the second number represents the amount of money bet, and the first number is the return. 3/5 means a winning bet of $5 would yield a $3 profit. Moneyline odds show a minus (-) or plus (+) symbol for favorites and underdogs, respectively. The favorite may have odds of -300, meaning somebody would have to bet $300 in order to win $100. An underdog might have odds of +250, meaning a person would win $250 on a $100 wager.

Read More on Liberty Nation News’ Election Coverage:

The Quadrennial Question: Can We Trust the Polls and Pundits?

Family Feud: Media Zeroes In on White House Warfare

Kamala’s Existential Crisis: Minority Voters Edging Toward Trump