As Election Day looms, Democrats find themselves in a glum position politically. In a newly released HarrisX/Forbes poll, former President Donald Trump now holds a newfound lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, a significant shift in momentum just days before voters head to the polls.

The national poll shows Trump leading Harris 51% to 49% in a head-to-head matchup when accounting for likely voters leaning toward one candidate. The new data represents a massive six-point shift from just last month when Harris enjoyed a four-point lead. In a larger, four-way race that includes third-party candidates Cornel West and Jill Stein, Trump still maintains a slight edge, leading 49% to 48%.

The poll also offers insights into the undecided electorate: when voters are allowed to choose “don’t know” or remain unsure, Trump and Harris are tied at 47% each. The tightness persists in a two-way race as well, with Trump leading by a single percentage point, 49% to 48%, among likely voters.

The poll indicates that up to 12% of likely voters are still contemplating their choices, with 4% remaining undecided in a two-way contest. Among registered voters, the uncertainty is even higher, with 18% not fully committed. Harris’s campaign, once buoyed by a steady lead, now faces a tough reality check. Her team has scrambled to refocus messaging and rally voter turnout, especially among younger voters and women, two demographics crucial for Democrats. Meanwhile, Trump’s campaign is seizing the moment, touting the poll as proof of growing momentum for his candidacy and pushing to convert leaners into solid supporters.

The HarrisX/Forbes poll is just the latest in a series of recent surveys showing the 2024 race tightening. Analysts attribute the shift to a mix of factors, including growing economic concerns, national security issues, and voter fatigue. Additionally, third-party candidates like West and Stein, while polling in single digits, are creating a potential spoiler effect, particularly for Harris, as disenchanted Democrats explore alternative options.

With early voting already underway in several states, both campaigns are ramping up efforts to sway undecided voters. Dritan Nesho, CEO of HarrisX, described the election to Forbes as a “dynamic, competitive race to the very end.” He said that the outcome hinges on several factors: “It will come down to both turnout and, importantly, the X-factor of the 18 percent of swing voters who still say they may change their mind.”

(FOCUS GROUP: Do You Blame KAMALA or TRUMP for record inflation?)