It's amazing how things change in politics. Twenty-four years ago, Florida was the state to win if you wanted the presidential election, and a Republican couldn't win the White House without winning Ohio as well. Today, both states are solid red states, and the presidential election is likely going to be decided in the Rust Belt: Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

This so-called "blue wall" has long been predicted to be the most important Democrat bulwark in this election. Assuming Donald Trump wins Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, he only needs to take one of the "blue wall" states to win the election. Kamala Harris would have to sweep all three.

Forget about what the polls say now because they'll tell you that Trump is up, the race is tied, or that Kamala is up, depending on the weather. The real key to knowing how things are going for Harris in the "blue wall" states is that Senate Democrats are running away from her, not embracing her, in this election, according to a report from The Hill.

Democrats running for the Senate in “blue wall” states that will be critical to determining the outcome of the 2024 election are running away from Vice President Harris, signaling that they are hoping to win over some of former President Trump’s voters to keep their seats.

And Democratic candidates in those states have been careful about criticizing Trump during the high-stakes debates. They have focused on policy and their own records without taking many — or any — shots against the Republican nominee.

One example cited was the recent ad from Sen. Bob Casey in Pennsylvania, which subtly distances him from Biden and Harris while embracing some of Trump’s policies. In the ad, a bipartisan couple highlights Casey’s willingness to buck his own party. The Republican wife notes that Casey “bucked Biden to protect fracking” and aligned with Trump “to end NAFTA and put tariffs on China.”

For our VIPs: Democrats Are Acting Like They’re Going to Lose

Similar things are happening in Wisconsin and Michigan.

In Wisconsin, endangered incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) ignored President Biden and Harris, and made only a passing reference to Trump, in her one and only debate appearance Friday.

Her opponent, Republican businessman Eric Hovde, meanwhile, frantically tried to connect the senator to the Biden-Harris administration — a strategy Republicans have tried to employ in Pennsylvania and Michigan, as well.

[...]

In Michigan, Democratic Senate candidate Elissa Slotkin, currently wrapping her third term representing the state in the House of Representatives, has sounded like a Republican at times, talking about her home on a “dirt road” where no electric vehicle would dare go. She has flashed Trumpian rhetoric about how Japan and South Korea “ate our lunch” in the 1980s by being a step ahead of U.S. automakers in promoting fuel-efficient vehicles.

Slotkin warned donors in a video call earlier this month that Harris was struggling against Trump in Michigan.

This is a terrible sign for Kamala Harris. If these Democrats felt Kamala was well-positioned to win their states, they'd be embracing her, not running away from her.