Elections are won and lost in the all-important battleground states. Between the seven crucial locales, there are 93 Electoral College votes up for grabs, and neither candidate has a realistic path to the White House without winning a significant portion of this trove. But that doesn’t mean the other states are without immense Election Day value. In fact, there are several states (swing and otherwise) that have the potential to be big news come November 6.

A Minnesota Surprise?

No Republican presidential nominee has won Minnesota (and its ten EC votes) since Richard Nixon defeated Democrat contender George McGovern by five points in 1972. Even Ronald Reagan fell short by 0.18% – a little under 4,000 ballots – which prevented him from getting a clean sweep of all 50 states in 1984. Notably, Reagan’s opponent was hometown boy Walter Mondale.

Donald Trump lost by seven points in 2020, a familiar gap for GOP hopefuls in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. However, in 2016, against Hillary Clinton, he was just 1.5% behind, suggesting that an appetite, sans COVID, for his brand of politics exists. And there is more to suggest that this state might be in play.

The RealClearPolitics election map projection lists nine states as toss-ups, the usual seven battlegrounds, Nebraska’s second congressional district, and Minnesota. Why would they do this? Well, one reason could be that the polling is not leaning as heavily toward Kamala Harris as it should be for a traditionally Democrat staple. To be clear, Donald Trump has not taken the lead in a single Minnesota poll; in fact, all the polls have gone decidedly Harris. But not by as much as one might expect, and that pesky margin of error might be taking the wind out of certain sails.

There have been seven state surveys since Harris became the assumed nominee. Such a dearth demonstrates that most people think it is safe territory and, therefore, not worth polling. The average of these polls gives Harris a lead of 4.7%. However, the margin of error average is over 3.6%. That doesn’t quite close the gap, but then, three of the seven surveys polled fewer than 700 people.

Additionally, a polling swing in favor of Donald Trump is well underway in the Midwest, especially in the Rustbelt. It seems unlikely that Minnesota, with all its cultural connections to the region, is not feeling some of that buzz.

A New York State of Mind?

There is almost no chance that Donald Trump will win New York on November 5. The Empire State is a true-blue bastion in which the Democratic Party candidate has won by at least 23% since 1992 (the single exception being George W. Bush’s re-election bid in 2004, where he lost by a mere 18 points). So why does the former president think it is worthwhile campaigning when he has such little possibility of success?

The mere handful of polls that have been carried out this year in New York show Kamala Harris with a solid lead of around 14%. Clearly, an insurmountable head start, and with less than three weeks to go, it would take a miraculous turn of events for the state to declare for Trump. But let’s consider that 14-point lead for a moment.

In October 2020, then-candidate Joe Biden held a stunning 30% advantage in the polls over Donald Trump – he eventually won by almost two million votes. At the same time in 2016, Hillary Clinton was polling roughly 23% ahead of Trump – a figure that closely matched the final tally. Kamala is vastly underperforming in a state that she should be able to effectively ignore.

The former president will be holding a rally in Madison Square Garden at the end of this month. And due to his numerous legal challenges in New York City, he has spent plenty of time in the Big Apple. It seems that he is trying to force Harris into expending valuable time and treasure in a location that was not on her radar for substantial campaigning.

As Liberty Nation News recently reported:

“If Trump narrows the gap on Election Day with the New York electorate, win or lose, it would be a devastating indictment of Kamala Harris and her mandate to enact the radical changes she has espoused on the campaign trail. After all, if a Democratic contender can only squeak by in the Empire State, it hardly makes for a ringing endorsement.”

You, too, Virginia?

Virginia was once regarded as a solidly red state – even holding off Bill Clinton’s two advances. But since Barack Obama’s ascension in 2008, it has turned decidedly purple – with some even suggesting a pale blue – and it’s hard to disagree. Joe Biden won in the commonwealth by 10.1%, the best Democrat performance since FDR in 1944. Hillary Clinton won by an extremely comfortable five points. So, it would seem that Trump’s fortunes in Old Dominion are on a downward trend. But let’s examine the polling numbers across the last three election cycles.

In mid to late October 2020, Biden had an almost 13.5% lead in the polling average. In 2016, Clinton was ahead by a clear ten points. Both of their leads contracted come Election Day. According to fivethirtyeight.com, Harris is ahead by an average of 7.5%, which could easily shrink.

And let’s not forget that Virginia has the enormously popular Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin at its helm, signifying that the residents are not blindly adherent to just one party. In the summer of 2023, the Virginia Commonwealth University had polling that showed Trump would narrowly lose to Biden in Virginia but that Youngkin would rout the Democratic incumbent by a massive 14 points.

In fact, the very latest VCU study shows that Harris leads Trump by only six points, a four-point drop since September.

Pennsylvania Is the Election Capital

It would be remiss not to at least mention the huge impact Pennsylvania will have on determining the ultimate victor in the 2024 presidential election. It has become the quintessential “Keystone” state and holds the 19 Electoral College votes that remain both candidates’ best path to the White House.

In recent years, PA has been “on the money” with regards to picking presidential winners – with the exception of George W. Bush, who managed twice to buck the 50-year trend. Both campaign teams know the importance of the commonwealth and are spending more than double the sum on ads in the second most contested swing state (Michigan). Trump and Harris – or their surrogates – are near-permanent fixtures, flitting from rally to townhall, to pretty much any event that they can muster. But who has the edge?

Until recently, this was Kamala’s race to lose. Then, she opted for Minnesota’s Tim Walz over PA Governor Josh Shapiro as her running mate, and things haven’t been quite the same since. As LNN has been documenting in its Election Countdown, Trump has reversed Harris’ lead and now stands 0.8% ahead, and he has the momentum with him. Also, the betting markets have Trump as the big favorite to win Pennsylvania.

In all likelihood, this election will come down to a few thousand votes across a handful of states. Each candidate will be playing hard to turn the margins in their favor. And when margins are so tight, it’s easy to forget that a small swing here and a tiny swing there, outside of the battleground states, could end up being the defining factor in how successful a presidency is over the next four years – regardless of who wins.