And here's why it matters.

This we know: Early voting (EV) was the flashpoint that determined the outcome of the 2020 presidential election. Democrats voted before the appointed day in massive numbers, while Republicans primarily waited to exercise their franchise on Election Day. However, it seems the GOP learned its lesson and this year urged those in its constituency to bank their vote by casting an early ballot, and it appears they are listening. What can the early vote tell us? Well, actually, quite a lot.

Early voters can be divided into three categories: party affiliation, gender, and battleground state. While we don’t know precisely for whom these people voted, each grouping reveals the likelihood of the votes cast for either former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris.

First, some key facts: Only 15 of the 50 states register their voters by party. That leaves 35 states without that designation. Second, independents outnumber both parties, with approximately 40% of those registered to vote. Democrats have historically outnumbered Republicans nationwide and by a lot – but not this year. Due to an aggressive “get out the vote” campaign by the Republican National Committee, which spent $60 million on a digital registration drive, more voters are self-identifying as Republicans than Democrats, reversing a 30-year trend. Third, women tend to vote more than men, and the early voting this year confirms this. Fourth, battleground state EV is the key to understanding voters’ preferences this election cycle. And finally, fifth, 46 states have mailed out ballots this year, making the 2020 style of voting more of a trend than an outlier.

The Early Vote by Party Affiliation

The closest one can get to determining the early voter’s preference is by looking at the party affiliation of those who have already cast their ballots. A savvy internet website known as TargetSmart has calculated that just shy of 13 million have voted early, with a breakdown of just over 7.5 million unaffiliated voters, 3 million Democrats and 2 million Republicans.

This would appear to indicate that the Democrats already have an advantage. Still, digging deeper, the actual percentage of Democratic voters who have already cast their ballots is much lower than in 2020, which was an unusual pandemic year. It also should be noted that unaffiliated voters lean Republican according to numerous polls.

The Early Vote by Gender

In 2020, a little more than 48 million women and 40 million men cast their ballots before Election Day, with another 3 million whose gender was not listed. So far this year, 6.8 million women have voted, with another 5.7 million men. These numbers are significantly lower than in 2020, even though early voting still has 13 more days to go. It would be difficult to match the 92 million who voted early in 2020. So, what’s the deal with battleground states? This is where it gets interesting.

The Early Vote by Battleground State

The early vote numbers in Minnesota can be considered more than a bit concerning for the Harris campaign. In 2020, almost a million women voted early, but now it appears that they aren’t coming out in droves. This time around, fewer than 200,000 Minnesotan women have voted. This lack of enthusiasm from a typically Democratic voting bloc doesn’t bode well for the party.

In hurricane-ravaged North Carolina, a modeled party statistic (based on a number of factors) shows early voting between the GOP and the Democratic Party is in a virtual dead heat. In Georgia, Republicans have the EV edge once again. However, in crucial states such as Pennsylvania and Michigan, the Dems currently have the upper hand. But in Arizona – where the number of EVs was neck-and-neck in 2020, 4.2% more Republicans have voted than in 2020. In Virginia, “Congressional districts held by Republicans have the highest early turnout, according to statistics collected by the Virginia Public Access Project,” said the commonwealth’s public radio station WVTF.

So, what are the takeaways from all this EV analysis? Republicans are going to the polls early in higher numbers than ever. While women represent the majority of early voters, men appear to be joining the brigade. In a few battleground states, the Democratic vote appears to be anemic at best.

This means the GOP has managed to convince its party members to bank their vote before Nov. 5. This is a different way of modeling the presidential election outcome, and the hidden gems of this type of analysis could mean Trump has a better chance of flipping the outcome in his favor. And if Minnesota and Arizona are any indication, there is reason for the GOP and MAGA country to be optimistic.