All the latest polls, betting odds, and news. Updated Daily.

Early voting is well underway, and the data paints a surprising picture. Kamala continues to lose ground nationally, and Trump makes swing state gains. And don’t forget to check out the latest betting market breakdown! With just 13 days to go before the election, Liberty Nation News wants you to have the full facts. We update this page daily, so please bookmark and keep checking back.

National Polling

According to the RealClearPolitics average of polls, Kamala Harris’ campaign continues to lose ground fractionally each day. She currently has an average advantage of just 0.9% – that’s a half-point drop over the weekend. One important element to consider is that Donald Trump famously underperforms in polls. Part of this is likely because of the “shy-Trump” factor, where, due to the vitriolic political environment, voters are not keen to share that they are planning on voting for The Donald. Another consideration is that MAGA voters, in particular, are notoriously hard for pollsters to contact. They don’t want to engage in phone or online surveys.

Author Jonathan Draeger notes in his recent piece on RCP that over 2016 and 2020, pinning down Trump’s vote share was a monumental task that ultimately failed. He writes:

“On average, in the seven 2024 swing states, polls underestimated Trump’s 2016 performance by 1.8 points compared to the final election results. In 2020, the polls were more accurate, with only a 1.1-point bias in Biden’s favor. Most of that difference occurred in Wisconsin, where the RCP Average had Biden up 6.7 points, but he won by only 0.7. This effect was also seen nationally, as Trump did 1.1 points better than predicted by the 2016 RCP Average and 2.7 points better than the 2020 RCP Average.”

One has to wonder whether the same effect is taking place this cycle, and if so, what that means for Harris’ potentially illusory 0.9% edge.

Battle for the Battlegrounds

The superb RealClearPolitics average of battleground polls grants Donald Trump a lead in all seven states. An average here suggests Trump is now ahead across these subsections by 1.1%. And while this is valuable data, it is worth narrowing the lens. Liberty Nation News opted to take the average of only the five most recent surveys. We feel this provides a more up-to-date snapshot of the race as it stands today. Using this rubric:

• Arizona – Trump +2.6%
• Georgia – Trump +2.8%
• Michigan – Trump +2%
• Nevada – Tie
• North Carolina – Trump +0.4%
• Pennsylvania – Trump +1.4%
• Wisconsin – Trump +0.6%

Overall, Donald Trump has an average lead of 1.4% over the seven key swing states. The latest polling additions suggest he has expanded his lead in Arizona and Michigan, and is tied with Harris in Nevada. If the election were held today, and these results played out, Donald Trump would likely win the election with 306 Electoral College votes. Which actually reflects the latest betting odds.

Betting on Election 2024

It is often the betting markets that prove most accurate when it comes to predicting electoral outcomes – and why wouldn’t they? It takes a high level of confidence to put one’s money on the line. On Election Day 2020, the odds* looked like this:

• Joe Biden: 4/7 (-175)
• Donald Trump: 6/4 (+150)

And the cash players turned out to be right. So, what do the gamblers have to say about November 5 this year?

• Donald Trump: 23/35 (-151.52)
• Kamala Harris: 14/9 (+156)

Trump’s probability of winning the election sits at 60.98% compared to Harris’ at 38.46%. Other notable betting options being played include:

• Donald Trump to win between 270 and 299 EC votes – 5/2 (+250) or a 28.57% probability
• Kamala Harris to win between 270 and 299 EC votes – 10/3 (+333) or a 23.09% probability
• Donald Trump to win between 300 and 329 EC votes – 2/1 (+200) or a 33.33% probability
• Kamala Harris to win between 300 and 329 EC votes – 2/1 (+500) or a 16.67% probability

Significantly, according to the betting markets, the most likely scenario this election is that Trump wins between 300 and 329 EC votes. The second most likely is that Trump gets more than the required 270 but fewer than 300.

* Betting odds explained: Betting odds are displayed here in the British format, known as fractional odds, and the American format, often called moneyline odds. With fractional odds, the second number represents the amount of money bet, and the first number is the return. 3/5 means a winning bet of $5 would yield a $3 profit. Moneyline odds show a minus (-) or plus (+) symbol for favorites and underdogs, respectively. The favorite may have odds of -300, meaning somebody would have to bet $300 in order to win $100. An underdog might have odds of +250, meaning a person would win $250 on a $100 wager.

Read More on Liberty Nation News’ Election Coverage:

The Quadrennial Question: Can We Trust the Polls and Pundits?

Family Feud: Media Zeroes In on White House Warfare

Kamala’s Existential Crisis: Minority Voters Edging Toward Trump