A handful of endangered swing-state Democratic U.S. Senate nominees are starting to cut and run from the Harris campaign, pivoting to praise former President Donald Trump as they seek to protect their own elections.

A review of major TV ads put up by the campaigns of Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA), Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), and Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) all portray the former president in a favorable, or at least neutral, light as they signal an openness to work with Trump if he wins in November. The about-face is especially notable for Slotkin and Baldwin because they have been at the forefront of condemning Trump and praising his various criminal prosecutions since he was charged. Today, however, both are backing down from stringently progressive positions on electric vehicle mandates, global trade, and the outsourcing of manufacturing jobs.

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“Casey Supports Trump’s Trade Order” blares one headline from the Pennsylvania Democrat’s latest ad, a reminder of how vulnerable the three-term incumbent has become this election cycle. Polls show a neck-and-neck race between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris who herself has transparently backtracked on a promise to end the Senate filibuster to pass the Green New Deal; today she favors domestic energy production and fracking, both extremely popular among Pennsylvania voters. The Keystone State’s other senator, John Fetterman (D-PA), has caused fellow Democrats heartburn by publicly predicting that Trump will carry the must-win state.

In Michigan Rep. Slotkin is engaged in a dogfight with former GOP congressman Mike Rogers after spending years courting progressive voters on the benefits of EV mandates. Today, Slotkin’s television ads declare she will support “no electric car mandates” likely in response to mass unrest among union auto workers who fear the industry will adopt automation and shed jobs in its transition. Former President Donald Trump heavily courted auto workers despite the industry’s union endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris, a play which appears to be paying off; in Pennsylvania, he is tied or slightly ahead of Harris in recent polling.

Sen. Baldwin is running for her third six-year term on a platform that welcomes bipartisan collaborations with Trump if he is elected. In a recent ad, her campaign spotlights white, male manufacturing employees and business owners who complain that foreign players like China have been “lowballing their prices” at the expense of American industry — a claim very familiar to anyone who has listened to President Trump during a visit to Michigan. “We can’t let China steal American jobs,” Sen. Baldwin says in the ad before one of the men declares she “got President Trump to sign her made-in-America bill.”

Let’s check in on Democrat Senate candidates in the blue wall states:

Baldwin (WI): Putting Trump in her ads
Casey (PA): Putting Trump in his ads
Slotkin (MI): Making ads against EV mandates.

They wouldn’t be doing this if they thought Kamala was winning. pic.twitter.com/yN1LZTFjXJ

— Greg Price (@greg_price11) October 18, 2024

Collectively, the three Democrats representing powerful points of view about the state of the race in Democrats’ “blue wall,” the amalgam of midwestern states they hope will keep a Trump tidal wave from washing them out in November. All indications point to cracks in the foundation as Trump scoops up local endorsements while Harris fails to gain traction among key parts of the progressive electorate unhappy with her move to the middle.

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