The latest and final national poll from RMG Research reveals that former President Donald Trump has surged to within a single point of Kamala Harris.

The poll, released today, shows Harris holding onto a narrow lead with 50%, while Trump is right on her heels at 49%. This marks a two-point gain for Trump since the last survey, narrowing what had been a three-point gap just a week earlier. The poll surveyed 2,950 likely voters between October 14-16, 2024, with a margin of error of +/- 1.8%. Notably, among voters with postgraduate degrees, Harris maintains a commanding 64% to 35% lead. However, Trump leads by four points among all other voters.

The final poll comes as the two candidates continue their intense battle for the White House. Since Harris entered the race in July, the margin between her and Trump has rarely exceeded five points, with neither candidate able to pull away. Over the last five weeks, the race has remained tight, never extending beyond a three-point difference. According to the poll, both candidates gained an additional point when “leaners” — those who were previously undecided but now indicate a preference — were factored in.

📊 Final National poll by RMG Research

🟦 Harris: 50% [=]
🟥 Trump: 49% [+2]

[+/- change vs 10/7-10]
——@NapolitanNews | Likely voters

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 18, 2024

Without the leaners, the race stands at Harris 49% and Trump 48%, emphasizing just how razor-thin the margin is heading into election day. Despite the tight race, Trump’s gains signal that his campaign’s closing message is resonating with many voters. Trump’s gains in the polls aren’t just creating anxiety for the Harris campaign; they’re having ripple effects down the ballot, especially in key swing states.

As the race tightens, it’s not just the presidential candidates feeling the heat. Some Democratic U.S. Senate nominees, particularly in battleground states, are beginning to shift their messaging. Facing tough re-election battles, these candidates are softening their positions and distancing themselves from Kamala Harris, even going so far as to highlight their willingness to work with Trump if he’s victorious in November.

A handful of endangered swing-state Democratic U.S. Senate nominees are starting to cut and run from the Harris campaign, pivoting to praise former President Trump as they seek to protect their own elections. A review of major TV ads put up by the campaigns of Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA), Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), and Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) all portray the former president in a favorable, or at least neutral, light as they signal an openness to work with Trump if he wins in November.

The about-face is especially notable for Slotkin and Baldwin because they have been at the forefront of condemning Trump and praising his various criminal prosecutions since he was charged. Today, however, both are backing down from stringently progressive positions on electric vehicle mandates, global trade, and the outsourcing of manufacturing jobs.

Let’s check in on Democrat Senate candidates in the blue wall states:

Baldwin (WI): Putting Trump in her ads
Casey (PA): Putting Trump in his ads
Slotkin (MI): Making ads against EV mandates.

They wouldn’t be doing this if they thought Kamala was winning. pic.twitter.com/yN1LZTFjXJ

— Greg Price (@greg_price11) October 18, 2024

“Casey Supports Trump’s Trade Order” blares one headline from the Pennsylvania Democrat’s latest ad, a reminder of how vulnerable the three-term incumbent has become this election cycle. Harris has transparently backtracked on a promise to end the Senate filibuster to pass the Green New Deal; today she favors domestic energy production and fracking, both extremely popular among Pennsylvania voters. The Keystone State’s other senator, John Fetterman (D-PA), has caused fellow Democrats heartburn by publicly predicting that Trump will carry the must-win state.

In Michigan Rep. Slotkin is engaged in a dogfight with former GOP congressman Mike Rogers after spending years courting progressive voters on the benefits of EV mandates. Today, Slotkin’s television ads declare she will support “no electric car mandates” likely in response to mass unrest among union auto workers who fear the industry will adopt automation and shed jobs in its transition. Former President Donald Trump heavily courted auto workers despite the industry’s union endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris, a play which appears to be paying off; in Pennsylvania, he is tied or slightly ahead of Harris in recent polling.

Sen. Baldwin is running for her third six-year term on a platform that welcomes bipartisan collaborations with Trump if he is elected. In a recent ad, her campaign spotlights white, male manufacturing employees and business owners who complain that foreign players like China have been “lowballing their prices” at the expense of American industry — a claim very familiar to anyone who has listened to President Trump during a visit to Michigan. “We can’t let China steal American jobs,” Sen. Baldwin says in the ad before one of the men declares she “got President Trump to sign her made-in-America bill.”

(POLL: Should Pelosi Be Banned From Trading Stocks?)