“Softer than expected demand” is the claim made by Ford to justify its cancellation of plans for producing a large electric SUV. The company also expects to take $1.9 billion hit in related special charges and write-downs for its previous EV investments.

Anyone vaguely familiar with the driving habits of most Americans would not find this “soft demand” unexpected at all. The only thing that is remotely unexpected is the sheer degree of incompetence being demonstrated by automakers in their pursuit of cashing in on government EV mandates.

They forgot one simple fact: the market was not ready to support the government-mandated move to EVs.

Both Ford and GM are delaying massive investments in electric vehicles yet again, now that trends in the campaigns of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are becoming more clearly drawn. If Harris wins in November, she will move forward; consumers be damned. If Trump wins, with his all-in approach toward our transportation future, EVs are likely to have most if not all purchase incentives and back-door mandates removed.

Ford’s new EV pickup trucks were supposed to begin manufacturing in 2025, but a few months ago Ford announced that development and production were to be delayed until 2026. The production start has now been delayed again, this time until 2027. What is happening here?

Simply put, Ford is waiting to see which candidate wins the election and is sworn in as president. The EV program implications of either candidate sitting in the Oval Office are staggering for automakers, and Ford knows it.

GM knows it too. The company is also scaling back plans for battery production facilities, re-tooling existing factories to produce EVs, and capital investments in new EV engineering. Like Ford, GM, with its Chevrolet and GMC brands, will be pushing EV engineering and investment expenditures out to 2026 and beyond.

The Environmental Protection Agency’s final rules on emissions were published in March 2024. The emissions standards would have forced automakers to sell two-thirds of all new cars as fully electric. It would have made gas-powered cars just as or more expensive than EVs, coercing consumers to buy EVs at the expense of consumer choice. It is an EV mandate disguised as an agency tailpipe emissions rule.

It can, and probably will, be signed into law under a Harris administration. But it can be neutralized under a Trump administration.

A GOP majority House of Representatives has rejected the de facto EV mandate, posing a dilemma for automakers and their tacit guarantees of federal funding for EV manufacturing and sales compliance. Without EVs being propped up by billions of taxpayer dollars and supported by a ban on gas-powered vehicles, the entire EV business model collapses.

And the market for used EVs? Two years ago, some used EV models were selling for as much as new EVs due to a shortage of cars exacerbated by a supply-chain crisis. Today, that dynamic has flipped as dealer lots are loaded with unsold EVs, new and used. Without a mandate to ban gas-powered cars, the market for used EVs is essentially zero.

(As a personal note, a friend used his Tesla Model Y to give me a demonstration of some of his company’s Tesla aftermarket accessories. At the start of the demonstration, his battery started to fail. In order to get me back to my office, 65 miles away, he had to stop twice to recharge the battery. What should have been a 90-minute trip took well over two hours. And he still had to return to his office, which took two additional hours. While this could be considered an isolated case, it clearly demonstrates the shortcomings of the most proven EVs, even from Tesla. —RT)

A Trump administration, eager to support new technologies but unwilling to eliminate consumer choice, would reject anything that resembles a ban on gas- or diesel-powered vehicles. That would tilt the playing field away from EV production and more toward affordable, reliable, and less expensive vehicles that consumers actually want to buy.

This could have been a hot potato issue in the 2024 elections but it seems that issue has run out of “gas” from both sides of the aisle. With Harris’ polling numbers diving down in the aftermath of her disastrous Fox News appearance on Wednesday, she can’t afford to alienate the electorate further. She knows that a point or two loss of support in key swing states (particularly Michigan, which has a skeptical view of EVs) could be the final nail in the coffin of her now floundering campaign.

Trump, on the other hand, is metaphorically in the driver’s seat. His all-in approach has clearly found favor with consumers as well as voters who are not ready to be mandated into EVs until they compete fairly in the marketplace without budget-busting bribes (we mean government incentives). And his tough-on-China stance could make things problematic for Chinese manufacturers like BYD, whether their EVs are imported from China or come across the border from Mexico.)

The fate of EVs could likely be directly tied to the results of the 2024 presidential election. Legacy and pure-play automakers know that without collusion with the government, their EV programs will probably wind down to appeal mainly to the small, niche market it was always intended to serve.

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Richard Truesdell is a former consumer electronics retail executive and automotive travel photojournalist. In the last 25 years, he has visited more than 35 countries on six continents. A former high school history teacher with a BA in Political Science from Waynesburg University, he is a lifelong Conservative moderate who has turned his thoughts and keyboard to political commentary and popular culture. A cross-section of his writings can be found here.

Keith Lehmann is a retired consumer electronics industry executive who has written extensively on technology, transportation, and international travel. Living in Southern California for over fifty years, he has first-hand exposure to societal and cultural happenings of the left and submits decidedly realism-based, Conservative viewpoints, much of which can be found on his Substack.