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Kamala Harris, Donald Trump and their running mates all set foot in Arizona in the last five days. So did First Lady Jill Biden. Former President Barack Obama plans to visit later this week.
The flurry of on-the-ground activity illustrates how Democrats and Republicans believe Arizona is still up for grabs even though the state’s economic and immigration challenges play to Mr. Trump’s strengths.
“It is still a close race in Arizona, and we know that because each of the four campaign principles are coming here in one week,” said GOP strategist Barrett Mason.
The dynamic is helping calm the nerves of Democrats, who are concerned about Mr. Trump’s strength in Pennsylvania and the other blue wall states, which have been crucial to the party’s success in presidential elections but backed Mr. Trump in 2016.
With Pennsylvania, Ms. Harris’s electoral map becomes more manageable. She must piece together wins in swing states such as Georgia and North Carolina without it.
A recent Wall Street Journal survey showed Ms. Harris has paths to victory across the Sun Belt, which could help offset possible disappointment in the Rust Belt.
SEE ALSO: Early voting in Arizona kicks campaigns into overdrive
Mr. Trump was still more trusted to handle the economy, inflation, rising prices, immigration, and border security.
However, Ms. Harris got higher marks on housing affordability, health care and the question of who “cares about people like you.”
The survey also showed that an overwhelming majority of voters are pessimistic about the direction of the national economy, but that doesn’t translate to the state level, where a majority is happy about their state economy.
Mr. Trump also was seen as the more “extreme” candidate.
Looking to press that advantage, Ms. Harris told voters in Phoenix last week that she is focused on bringing down the cost of living, investing in small businesses, and fighting to “protect reproductive freedom.” Mr. Trump “is only focused on himself,” she said.
“Well, folks, it is time to turn the page,” said Ms. Harris. “America is ready for a new way forward and ready for a new optimistic generation of leadership for our country, which is why Arizona Democrats, Republicans and independents are supporting our campaign.”
Brian Seitchik, who served as the Trump campaign’s Arizona state director in 2016 and regional political director in 2020, said the race in Arizona boils down to voters’ views of the former president.
“Harris has no control over her destiny in Arizona,” he said. “It will simply be a referendum on Donald Trump.”
Arizona, arguably more than any other state, symbolizes the Trump era of American politics.
In 2016, Mr. Trump carried the state by more than three points over Hillary Clinton, and the Arizona GOP — much like the national party — underwent a MAGA makeover.
The party adopted Mr. Trump’s populist brand of politics and his criticism of mail-in and early voting, election tools Republicans had promoted and benefited from for years.
The approach scared away some suburban Republicans and helped President Biden win the state in 2020 by less than 11,500 votes.
Arizona has since been ground zero for Mr. Trump’s stolen election claims, and the party has fallen short in high-profile gubernatorial and Senate campaigns.
Mr. Trump now has a prime opportunity to turn things around.
Republicans in the state say a lot of voters, including anti-Trump Republicans, were more enamored with Mr. Biden than they are with Ms. Harris because they fear she is too liberal for their tastes.
The state also suffered from some of the worst inflation in the nation under the Biden-Harris administration and has been on the frontlines of the fight over illegal immigration.
“Trump is in a better position than he was at this point in 2020,” said Mike Noble, head of Noble Predictive Insights, an Arizona-based pollster.
Mr. Nobile highlighted Mr. Trump’s improved standing among the state’s Hispanic electorate.
A new New York Times/Sienna poll showed Ms. Harris up in Pennsylvania and down in Arizona, found the Democratic edge among Hispanics had dropped from 62% in 2020 to 56% this month while their support for the GOP held steady around 37%.
Still, Ms. Harris is locked in a dead heat with Mr. Trump, to the shock of some who say she is facing severe political headwinds.
Republicans say the race remains fluid because Mr. Trump has not done enough to win back the college-educated GOP voters who have not backed him since supporting him in 2016. They also fear the Trump campaign’s decision to outsource its get-out-the-vote operations to third-party groups could cost him.
The Wall Street Journal survey found Ms. Harris, who led by 2 points in Arizona, had done more to solidify her support among Democrats, with 96% backing her compared to 88% of Republicans backing Mr. Trump.
Meanwhile, Ms. Harris is hoping for a strong showing among women and young voters who plan to support a ballot measure in Arizona that seeks to enshrine the right to an abortion in the state constitution.
They also wonder whether Ms. Harris benefits from Kari Lake’s Trump-inspired bid for the U.S. Senate against Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego, who has consistently polled ahead in the race.
Mr. Gallego has been airing a television ad featuring footage of Ms. Lake bragging that, “We drove a stake through the heart of the McCain machine.”
The late John McCain, a longtime Republican senator from Arizona, feuded with Mr. Trump, and for Democrats, the rift has come to epitomize the GOP divide over Mr. Trump.
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