The prevalent thought about the ongoing presidential race is that things couldn't be much closer. I've been thinking that way myself, based on the data. But I also look at trends — and, like anyone else, I have a gut feeling about all this. Granted, that gut feeling is worth every penny you paid for it, but I will say that my gut, along with the rest of me, has been watching presidential elections like a lot of guys watch sportsball since 1976, so my gut has seen some surprises.

A Fox News piece released Friday claims the current race is a "dead heat." Is it?

A new Wall Street Journal poll has found little separation between former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in seven battleground states, prompting a Democratic pollster to say that the 2024 election "really could not be closer."

The survey of 600 registered voters in each of the states, which was conducted Sept. 28-Oct. 8 with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points, found that in a head-to-head contest, Trump and Harris are tied in North Carolina and Wisconsin.

Harris leads Trump 48%-46% in Arizona and Georgia, and 49%-47% in Michigan, according to the poll. In Nevada, Trump has his biggest swing state lead of 49%-43%, while he leads Harris in Pennsylvania 47%-46%, the poll also found.

"It really could not be closer," Democrat Michael Bocian, one of the pollsters who worked on the survey, told The Wall Street Journal. "It’s an even-steven, tight, tight race."

Bear in mind that, were I a Democrat trying to whistle past the Harris/Walz graveyard, that's precisely what I'd say.

But this is just one poll. It's a snapshot, one taken of a moving target. The RealClearPolitics averages, which I'm fond of watching not only for those averages of polling but also trends, paint a different picture as of Friday:

• Arizona: Trump +0.5
• Nevada: Trump +0.2
• Wisconsin: Harris +0.3
• Michigan: Trump +0.9
• Pennsylvania: Trump +0.4
• North Carolina: Trump +0.5
• Georgia: Trump +0.5

These averages, granted, are closer than is comfortable for Republicans, but if things are really that tight, why are Democrats bringing out their big guns — at least, the biggest they have — to try to save Kamala Harris's flagging fortunes?

See Related: Obama Gets Honest About Kamala's Big Problem,
Shows How Desperate Dems Are

Here's what my gut says: Things aren't that close. I'd much rather think that the Trump/Vance team will win a 1984-style, 49-state landslide, but honestly, that's not going to happen. But were I to examine signs and portents — or a plate of chicken entrails — I'd say that it looks like a Trump/Vance win. The momentum is clearly moving that way. Every appearance Kamala Harris has done has been a disaster. Every appearance Tim Walz has done has been as bad or worse. 

See Related: Kamala's Univision Town Hall Was a Complete Disaster

The Trump campaign, meanwhile, is not only holding Trump's trademark huge rallies, but they are also putting out actual policy proposals. You can agree with them or not just as you please, but Trump is putting them out there, while Harris can only mumble vague statements about "making the rich pay their fair share."

See Related: Trump Rolls Out Policies to Spur the Economy, and a Surprising Personal Note, at Detroit Economic Club

It's not over yet. But we're past what Winston Churchill described so famously as "the end of the beginning." We're 25 days out; it's the beginning of the end now. And, for Republicans watching the presidential race, it's beginning to look a lot like Christmas. But don't get complacent. Don't take anything for granted. Get out and vote. If your state has mail-in voting, fill out your ballot and drop it in a box — don't trust the mail. If your state has early voting — go vote now. If your state has a traditional system, get out on November 5th to vote. If your neighbors need a ride to the polling place, give them one (unless they're Democrats — then let them find their way. This is a rough business.) Get out and get it done, because if we know one thing about Kamala Harris, it's this: She must never be President of the United States.