There's a school of thought that says the Republican Party has all but locked up control of the Senate come 2025, but such celebrating might be a bit premature. Take a look at the Senate race in Nebraska, where two-term Republican Deb Fischer is in a much-closer-than-expected competition with Independent Dan Osborn.

In his comprehensive recap of where Senate control stands today, RedState's Bonchie made this observation about what's happening in the Plains state:

Surprisingly enough, the danger for the GOP now lies in Nebraska. Dan Osborn, a Navy veteran and union boss, is running as an "independent" and has been garnering a lot of outside cash. That has put incumbent Republican Sen. Deb Fischer on the defensive, with some recent polls showing Osborn with a lead. 

One of those polls Bonchie referred to was a recent New York Times/Siena College poll showing Osborn leading Fischer by a whopping eleven points. Forty-nine percent of the 663 respondents said they would vote for Osborn, 38 percent chose Fischer, with the remaining 13 percent falling into the "Don't Know/Refused" category. Fischer's numbers are particularly surprising considering that 78 percent of self-identified Republicans in deep-red Nebraska say they're supporting Donald Trump, who has endorsed Fischer, not to mention that Republicans hold a 2-to-1 voter registration advantage in the state.

So, what's going on here? One GOP strategist thinks it's simply down to 2024 being an "anti-incumbent year":

A Republican strategist who is a veteran of the Senate game adds, “If Deb Fischer is in trouble, then [Senators] Sherrod Brown, Jon Tester, and Bob Casey are toast in an anti-incumbent year.”

An anti-incumbent year in 2024 certainly favors the Republicans. Osborn seems to be leaning into that sentiment and attacking Fischer for being an establishment political player who's deeply entrenched in DC. Here's a little bit about Osborn's background and messaging strategy:

Osborn led the strike at Omaha's Kellogg plant in 2021, gaining some national attention in the process. But the 49-year-old is a political newcomer. And he's leaned into a populist message to pledge to lead the state as an independent who will work for Nebraskans, while painting his opponent as an establishment politician controlled by corporate interests.

It certainly sounds like Osborn's campaign is trying to seize on more conservative messaging in order to attract those voters who lean R. Per the candidate himself: "Our message of standing up for small businesses, family farmers, and working families is resonating because Nebraskans want a senator who listens to them, who shows up for them and who will be a strong voice for them in the Senate."

This doesn't sound like a stark difference from Fischer, a cattle rancher who is an advocate for agriculture subsidies and rural Internet access. For her part, Fischer is painting Osborn as a "Democrat in disguise." It's important to note that there is no Democrat in the race, as the Dems likely ignored the state thinking Fischer was a shoo-in for reelection since she received nearly 58 percent of the vote back in 2018.

Although he's technically not running as a Democrat, the wallets of deep-pocketed Democrat donors have certainly been opened for Osborn, which calls into question whether he'd switch affiliations were he to be elected. Fischer's campaign is wondering the same thing:

"Dan Osborn claims to be an independent, but he's funded by the same billionaire Democrats supporting Kamala Harris, supports mass amnesty and social security for illegal immigrants, and was caught on tape saying he loves Bernie Sanders," the Fischer campaign said in a statement to CBS News. "When Nebraskans learn that Dan Osborn is a liberal Democrat in disguise, they won't stand for it."

Republicans seem caught off guard by the situation developing in Nebraska, and are starting to pour resources into ensuring that Fischer retains her seat. 

It's unlikely that the outcome of the Nebraska Senate race will decide control of the U.S. Senate, especially if the anti-incumbent theory holds true since that would favor Republicans in the Ohio, Montana, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania Senate races. Throw in a pickup in West Virginia, and the GOP's chances are looking good. But, of course, nothing is a done deal until November 5.