All week I've been writing about the changing landscape in Michigan. Yesterday, two new polls had bad news for Harris. One showed Trump leading Harris by 3 points in the state and the other showed Harris losing ground among Arab Americans, a group that could determine the outcome in a close race.

Today, Axios notes that there seems to be a trend in the rust belt, one that is making Democrats anxious. Some cracks are appearing in the blue wall.

Harris is depending on that Blue Wall to win the White House, even if she struggles in the Sunbelt. On private calls, some top Harris allies are saying they believe the race will come down to Pennsylvania and Michigan...

Michigan is the most complex swing state — where Democratic erosion among union members, Arab Americans and young men all collide. It has one of just three Senate races the Cook Political Report rates a toss-up, along with Ohio and Wisconsin. Last month, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), who's running for Senate, warned donors that her internal polling showed Harris was "underwater" in Michigan, Axios scooped.

In Wisconsin, Cook this week moved the re-election race of Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) to toss-up from "Lean Democrat." Axios Sneak Peek last week scooped that Democratic insiders suddenly fear they could shockingly lose the critical contest. Trump on Sunday visited Wisconsin for the fourth time in eight days.

None of this means Harris is losing any of these states yet, but it's pretty clear her momentum is slipping away. Maybe if there were just one problem she could fix it but we keep seeing signs of waning enthusiasm in lots of different demographics. Today, Politico reports it's not just the Arab American vote that has the Harris camp feeling worried. They must also be seeing signs that the black vote is slipping because they are sending in surrogates to try to shore it up.

It’s a concerted push, involving the likes of NBA hall-of-famer Magic Johnson, New York Attorney General Tish James, Democratic Party elder Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.), Gen-Z Rep. Maxwell Frost (D-Fla.) and actress Kerry Washington in Detroit, which is nearly 80 percent Black, and the surrounding area. And it’s the latest sign that the Kamala Harris campaign — and Democrats more broadly — see trouble on the horizon. Harris has built up a small advantage in Michigan, but soft turnout among Black voters could cause that lead to vanish in the face of a motivated Republican base.

I get Magic Johnson but it really says something that Tish James is a top surrogate. Some community leaders feel like the surrogates are just a way to keep the candidate at arm's length. I guess they don't realize that the basement campaign requires keeping Harris sheltered behind a phalanx of employees at all times. That way if she says or does something stupid, no one is likely to report it.

“When you come to Detroit and you don’t meet with Detroit pastors, that’s a layup that you missed hard,” said Bishop Cory Chavis of Victory Community Church, following a gathering of faith leaders for Harris, where the keynote speaker was Clyburn. Chavis said he appreciated Clyburn’s presence, but face time with the vice president would have been more impactful.

Politico spoke to a bunch of black voters in Detroit and the news for Harris was not good. I'm amused that some of these voters are only now deciding Democrats might be a bit condescending. Really, Detroit? Is this breaking news?

Three dozen Black Detroiters, including strategists, activists, clergy, elected officials and likely voters, the vast majority of them men, told POLITICO about their concerns with the campaign’s outreach to Black voters. Some said their appeals come off as condescending. Others added that party officials and surrogates often question their intelligence if they inquire about how their lives will change under a Harris administration...

“I am worried about turnout in Detroit. I think it’s real,” said Jamal Simmons, a former communications director for the vice president and a Detroit native. “Do they have the machine to turn people out?”

“There are concerns and they’re not insignificant,” he added.

The issue here is mostly enthusiasm. Trump may make some inroads with black voters, especially men, but even under the rosiest of rosy scenarios she's going to win this demographic by a wide margin. But in a state where everyone knows the race is tight, it matters whether black voters are enthusiastic about voting for Harris or just decide to stay home. Genuine enthusiasm is the one thing a basement campaign is probably not going to produce.