A new report from the Epoch Times reveals the stunning conclusion from several economists: That the U.S. has been in a recession for the last two years, based on adjustments to the nation’s consumer-punishing inflation rates.

And, the report revealed, “According to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, cumulative inflation since 2019 has totaled nearly 25%.”

The report explains that economists EJ Antoni and Peter St. Onge have written at the Brownstone Institute that, “Many have questioned the accuracy of official inflation statistics, with dozens of academic papers written on the topic and doubts voiced by sources ranging from the New York Times to former President Donald Trump.”

“This matters not only because of the political salience of rising prices, but also because official inflation numbers are used to calculate real economic growth by adjusting nominal dollars to inflation-adjusted dollars.”

They explained their goal was a “true understanding of inflation” and “true economic growth.”

They first explain the obstacles to their work: “The difficulty in measuring the size of a nation’s economy is two-fold. First, there is insufficient data to directly measure the number and size of all transactions in an economy, or to monitor all economic activity. Second, the measuring tool used (in this case, the Federal Reserve note) changes value over time. Thus, fluctuations in the nominal value of economic activity can be due to real changes in economic activity, measurement error of economic activity, or changes in the value of a currency.”

However, they identified multiple problems with the government’s process that “tend to underestimate the rise in prices over time. These shortcomings have been more pronounced over the last four years during a relatively rapid depreciation of the currency.”

Kamala Harris, the Democrat nominee for president, of course right now is trying to distance herself from the failures of the Biden-Harrius administration in which she’s play a major role, according to statements from Joe Biden.

The study concerns itself with offering “an alternative adjustment for converting nominal growth to real growth by more accurately reflecting changes in the cost of living over time.”

They explained the cost of renting or owning a home is a significant part of any inflation equation, and the government’s CPI vastly underestimates the costs of housing inflation.

Further, the burden on consumers from governmental regulations are faulty because of “perceived” benefits to consumers, perceived by government workers, “that do not actually exist.”

“For example, if it is assumed that a regulation increases the quality of a product, then even a dramatic increase in price could register as no price change or even a price decline in the national accounting which is used to compute gross domestic product (GDP),” they said.

Then there are “indirect” purchases, like the costs of health insurance, an issue that the CPI “neglects,” they said.

They point out that, for example, while the “nominal” change in disposable personal income was 35.3%, the real change was 12.9%. Likewise with retail sales, the nominal change was 23.1% but the real change was 3.2%.

“Note that not only are the inflation adjustments large, but they are highly variable, ranging from under 20% for wholesale sales to 22% to 23% for manufacturing inventories and new orders,” they said. “While 3% may seem like a small difference, in the context of GDP growth it represents nearly a $1 trillion difference in real output – roughly the GDP of Saudi Arabia. And in the context of annual economic growth, 3% over a 4-year period is a very large number – the difference between robust and anemic growth. Or between anemic growth and recession,” they wrote.

They said, too, “The real increase of 12.9% in disposable income from the first quarter of 2019 through the second quarter of 2024 becomes a real decrease of 2.3 percent over that period – an aggregate 15% difference.”

They said during President Trump’s tenure, his deregulation actually “led to marginal decreases in the cost of living which were not captured by official inflation metrics,” but that trend “had fully reversed by the fourth quarter of 2022 under Biden-Harris.”

“Summing the entire period, nominal GDP at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate in the second quarter of 2024 was 37.4% higher than the first quarter of 2019,” they explained. “A significant portion of this increase, however, is merely inflation. The BEA’s inflation adjustment reduces growth over this period from 37.4 percent to 13.7 percent, or nearly two-thirds of nominal growth.”

They found, “According to our adjustments, cumulative inflation since 2019 has been understated by nearly half. This has resulted in cumulative growth being overstated by roughly 15%. This is a large amount for just 5 years – for perspective, peak-to-trough drop in real GDP during the 2008 crisis was 4%. Moreover, these adjustments indicate that the American economy has actually been in recession since 2022.

“These conclusions are in stark contrast to the establishment narrative that the U.S. economy is enjoying robust growth that for some reason the public is incapable of perceiving. Indeed, our results are consistent with the perceptions of the American public, of whom a majority believe we are in recession,” the report said.

Bob Unruh

Bob Unruh joined WND in 2006 after nearly three decades with the Associated Press, as well as several Upper Midwest newspapers, where he covered everything from legislative battles and sports to tornadoes and homicidal survivalists. He is also a photographer whose scenic work has been used commercially. Read more of Bob Unruh's articles here.