Ed and I discussed this in our Week in Review podcast that was published earlier today, but I thought it deserved a post as well since our non-VIP readers could get a bit of our wisdom. 

President Biden has sent a clear signal to Israel that he doesn't want it to strike at Iran's nuclear weapons development facilities, but signaled that hitting Iran's oil facilities would be an acceptable response to Iran's ballistic missile attack. 

Biden may or may not be in charge, but his lifelong ability to make any foreign policy problem worse is undefeated...

Biden: Maybe We'll Let Israel Hit Iran's Oil Infrastructure https://t.co/o5NIwoX8G3

— Pradheep J. Shanker, M.D. (@neoavatara) October 3, 2024

As is so often the case, Biden is 100% wrong. Biden is always wrong, so that is no surprise. 

Here's why:

Netanyahu has made it very clear that his fight is not with the people of Iran, who are groaning under the Islamist regime's tyranny, but with the regime itself. That, alone, might be a good reason to avoid hitting the oil infrastructure because it will impose a high cost to the civilians, although it would also harm the regime. It would not be immoral to take those facilities out, but it is not the best choice for them. 

Key line in Netanyahu's speech to the Iranian people:

"When Iran is finally free, and that moment will come a lot sooner than people think..." https://t.co/gJvUs3Gmno

— Ryan Saavedra (@RealSaavedra) September 30, 2024

Netanyahu is aiming for regime change in Iran, not to create pain for civilians in retaliation. He may have to settle for hitting those sites, but they are far from the best choice. 

The oil facilities are not a threat to Israel, except as a source of funding that could be cut off by other means. Trump did it, nearly bankrupting the regime. Biden has allowed Iran to profit off its oil production, and if he actually wanted to help Israel he would turn the profit spigot off. 

Obviously. 

The refineries certainly provide energy for the regime, but most of the fuel goes to civilians. The regime will do fine regardless, but civilians would be hurt disproportionately. If Israel wants to spark a backlash against the regime and support its opponents, it would probably be counterproductive to hit these facilities. 

The nuclear sites, though, ARE a threat to Israel and her Arab neighbors, who would also be thrilled to see them gone. The Arab countries have signaled support for Israel or remained silent, which is a signal itself. They hate Iran as much as Israel, just as they hate Hamas and Hezbollah. They are among the least critical of Israel compared to the UN and Europe. They make a few noises and grunts but obviously would love to see Iran and its proxies destroyed. 

Hitting the nuclear facilities--if they seriously damage them--would be a huge blow to the Iranian regime. Hitting Iran's leadership would be a death blow, and many Persians would take the opportunity to take down the evil regime. 

Israel should take out the threats, not take revenge. Revenge doesn't change the strategic situation. It might be satisfying but not especially productive. 

Of course, the most obvious reason to do this is that Joe Biden tells them not to--Biden hasn't been right about foreign policy once in his lifetime.