Following the first and only vice presidential debate of the 2024 election cycle, mainstream polls and focus groups nearly unanimously agree that Republican nominee J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) emerged triumphant over Democratic nominee Tim Walz (D-Minn.).

As RedState reports, two polls from mainstream news networks gave Vance a narrow edge over Walz. The CNN poll showed that 51% of respondents considered Vance the winner, while 49% chose Walz. The poll from CBS, the network that hosted the debate, saw 42% of respondents declare Vance the winner, while 41% said Walz won, and 17% said it was a tie.

Notably, this marked the first time in modern history that a CNN poll saw an outright majority declare the Republican to be the winner of the vice presidential debate. In 2016, Republican nominee Mike Pence (R-Ind.) was considered the winner over Democratic nominee Tim Kaine (D-Va.), with 48% to 42%. In 2012, Paul Ryan (R-Wisc.) narrowly won over then-Vice President Joe Biden, again with 48% to Biden’s 44%. In the 2020 and 2008 vice presidential debates, the Democratic candidates were considered the winners by double-digit landslides.

Among focus groups, the results were even more heavily in favor of Vance. The Washington Post’s focus group of 22 swing state voters ultimately saw 14 declare Vance the winner of the debate, while just 8 said Walz was the winner. Frank Luntz’s focus group of 14 chose Vance in a landslide, with 12 siding with the Republican and just two choosing the Democrat; noticeably, Luntz’s group started off the debate with just 5 saying they were leaning towards the Trump/Vance ticket.

A number of columnists and commentators also considered Vance the clear winner of the debate, on both substance and style; whereas Vance gave calm but straightforward answers to the questions, Walz repeatedly appeared nervous, stuttered, and failed to give coherent answers on such issues as his lies regarding his time spent in China.

The vice presidential debate is expected to be the final debate of the election cycle, following the first debate between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) on September 10th, and the prior debate between President Trump and Joe Biden on June 27th, after which Biden dropped out of the election. It is estimated that about 43 million people watched the debate, down significantly from the 67 million who watched the Trump-Harris debate, but relatively close to the 48 million who watched the Trump-Biden debate.