U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem, Israel, Wednesday, May 1, 2024. (Official State Department photo by Chuck Kennedy)

JERUSALEM – In the not-so-distant past, information about wars and potential peace negotiations was sparse at best, and relied upon in-situ correspondents telling their audience, with broad brushstrokes, the outlines of what was occurring. In Israel’s war against Hamas, which is being fought in cyberspace as much as in the turbulent Gazan coastal enclave, the ubiquity of information, claims and counter-claims can be as confusing as the lack of data from decades past.

What is uncontested is that the final road would always lead to Rafah, and that the beginning of this end-game started with Israel’s partial encirclement of that city starting May 6. Beyond that, there are two political leaders – U.S. President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – who are attempting to use the Gaza conflict as a way of shoring up their domestic bases, and each using the other figure to do so. And all that’s before even addressing Hamas – and by extension, Iran, and all its other regional proxies.

So what’s going on?

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The Israel Defense Forces, or IDF, entered Hamas’s final stronghold of Rafah, where it is believed the terror organization has at least four battalions of fighters, amounting to more than 10,000 combatants. It is also thought to be the location of the remainder of more than 120 hostages – snatched from their homes, beds and military bases – the fate of whom is still uncertain. What is clear, however, is that as the IDF has pushed further into Rafah, it is uncovering the remains of hostages whose immediate fate on Oct. 7, 2023 was unknown. For example, on Monday, June 3, the body of Dolev Yehud, from Kibbutz Nir Oz, was identified.

The body of Dolev Yehud was found and identified on Kibbutz Nir Oz, the IDF confirmed Monday morning.https://t.co/Xo5Njqc0zi

— The Jerusalem Post (@Jerusalem_Post) June 3, 2024

On May 26, while targeting two high-profile Hamas marks – one of whom was active in the West Bank – the IDF used lighter missiles to liquidate their foes. What followed has been mired in accusation and counter-accusation, claim and counterclaim, and – as has become customary in the information war – outright deceit. This was both on account of the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry, which published casualty figures, and the compliant corporate media, which duly ran with this version of the story. Several salient points can now be gleaned from this incident:

Avi Mayer, formerly editor-in-chief of the Jerusalem Post, wrote a precis of events on his ‘X’ account. He said the principal canard leveled against Israel – that it specifically targeted civilians – is neither backed up by the evidence nor by a real-time intercepted message from Gaza, which acknowledged that weapons were stored nearby the strike zone.

The facts about the Israeli airstrike in Rafah and the fire that followed are starting to become clear, and they totally change the story:

◾️ The Israeli airstrike that targeted senior Hamas commanders in Rafah was more than a mile away from the safe zone for Palestinian… pic.twitter.com/RiLjyS7Bvc

— Avi Mayer אבי מאיר (@AviMayer) May 28, 2024

CAMERA, the Committee for Accuracy in Middle East Reporting & Analysis published a useful thread on ‘X,’ in which it individually debunked recent statements, including those emanating from the United Nations.

THREAD

After the tragic recent deaths in Tel as-Sultan in southern Gaza, misinformation spread rapidly, even among journalists.

As CAMERA's @dmlitman explained for @JNS_org, 50+ UN “experts” released a statement riddled with factual errors.

Let's unpack it... pic.twitter.com/2hBvzchdQq

— CAMERAorg (@CAMERAorg) June 3, 2024

A cross-border skirmish between the IDF and the Egyptian military on May 27, in which an Egyptian soldier was killed in an exchange of fire, has also added to the confusion about the picture that emerges from Rafah. Tensions between Cairo and Jerusalem have ratcheted up over the last few months, and have spiked as the IDF has moved deeper into Rafah. The discovery of dozens of cross-border smuggling tunnels, which Egyptian criminal elements control – and very lucratively at that – has shown that the longest-lasting peace deal between Israel and an Arab country is under stress. Egypt has huge internal issues, which include growing food insecurity and increased Islamization … and pretty much everything in between.

However, on a macro level, the last few days have crystallized the widening gap between Washington and Jerusalem.

Israeli forces operating in the Gaza Strip on Sunday, Feb. 18, 2024. (IDF photo)

Not content with meddling with U.S. elections – including by widespread Justice Department lawfare against his political opponents – President Biden and his administration have made it clear on more than one occasion that they seek the ouster of Israel’s democratically elected prime minister. Indeed, the open policy of the current U.S. administration is to exert pressure on a reliable, democratic and friendly country in the Middle East that is fighting an existential war for its very survival. This should not come as a total surprise, however. It’s not a great leap for a president whose family's corrupt actions have caused many to liken it to a crime family to then use the same levers of power to behave in such an egregious way toward an ally.

The outline of what Biden said on Friday – during the Jewish Sabbath, a time when official Israeli government communication is rare because of the religious sensibilities involved – is highlighted below:

The text is illuminating, both for what it says, and for what it leaves out. The Biden administration leaked over the weekend that Israel had already green-lighted what the president laid out on Friday. The most salient omission, however, is that nowhere does it categorically say Hamas should be removed from power in Gaza. As one of the Israeli government’s specifically stated aims upon its declaration of war against Hamas was that at the end of the hostilities – whenever that may occur – the Sunni Islamist terrorist organization would no longer be in control of the coastal enclave, it is difficult to countenance their signing off on this apparent deal.

Indeed, while Israel’s government hinted that parts of what Biden said might have been somewhat true, it pushed back strongly against the bulk of what the U.S. president announced. On June 1, the official Israel PM account on ‘X’ rejected the supposed change of conditions outright.

The Prime Minister's Office:

Israel's conditions for ending the war have not changed: The destruction of Hamas military and governing capabilities, the freeing of all hostages and ensuring that Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel.

— Prime Minister of Israel (@IsraeliPM) June 1, 2024

Biden revealed that the new Israeli proposal for a ceasefire and hostage deal had been submitted on Thursday to Hamas via Qatar, also maintaining the pressure into this week, and claiming that “Netanyahu will do almost anything to free the hostages.”

The current U.S. administration wants Israel’s democratically elected prime minister gone from the political scene. It is trying to box him in by creating division between the coalition partners and stoking the ire of Israel’s electorate by making oblique suggestions regarding how Netanyahu has allowed his indecision to guide him as a way of elongating the war – and by extension, prolonging the agony for the hostages and their families. By publicly claiming that this so-called deal emanated from Netanyahu and the war cabinet, Biden is attempting to make Israel’s government take ownership – and to make it exceptionally difficult for Netanyahu, once considered either one of the smoothest or slipperiest of political operators, depending on one’s point of view – to distance himself from it.

Wars are conducted on three fronts: the tactical, the strategic and the political. The first two, evidenced by the IDF’s conduct on the ground, are actually working quite successfully. Israel’s military succeeded in moving some 1 million Gaza residents out of Rafah and into temporary refugee camps. This was achieved in fewer than four weeks, when the U.S. defense establishment had questioned whether it could even be done in four months. These are the same people who thought spending hundreds of millions of dollars on a floating pier in the Mediterranean Sea would provide additional aid to the Palestinians … who are already getting it via the various crossings. And, of course, everyone knows the pier sank.

However, it is the latter arena of the three, the political, where there is significantly less surety and which is, in part, a result of indecision at the highest levels of Israel’s government – up to and including the current prime minister. And into this combustible mix, increased rocket attacks from Hezbollah in southern Lebanon have set much of Israel’s northern forests ablaze. The window for continued inaction on that front is closing rapidly, and fosters the impression of a besieged prime minister who is quickly running out of options.

More than a dozen fires have broken out in northern Israel and the Galilee as a result of Hezbollah rocket fire.

We will take every measure to protect Israelis from those who try to harm them. pic.twitter.com/aIo4j42PVk

— Israel ישראל (@Israel) June 3, 2024

If President Joe Biden – who as vice president urged former President Barack Obama not to give the green light to Seal Team 6 to take out Osama Bin Laden when his whereabouts were known, and who quarterbacked the epically disastrous Afghanistan pull-out – gets his way, it is possible to imagine a scenario where Hamas de facto retains its position as the government in Gaza.

More than that, the extreme pressure currently being exerted upon Israel will likely not give Oct. 7 terror architect Yahya Sinwar much compelling reason to come to the negotiating table, despite noises from the U.S. administration that “this is Hamas’ last chance.”

If Sinwar in particular is allowed to emerge from whichever dark corner of Rafah in which he is allegedly hiding, and hold up a V for Victory sign as he comes blinking into the sunlight, he will be lauded – even more than he already is – as a tactical genius who was able to avoid exile and also cow the lion of Judah. It will bode extremely ill for Israel.

Not only will there be ambiguity, at best, as to the outcome of the war, it will only further embolden the terrorist “ring of fire” that Iran, via its proxies, has established in the states – all of them failed or failing – surrounding Israel. If the so-called international community has been critical of Israel for how it has conducted hostilities with Hamas, wait until its back is really against the wall and it is in a tooth-and-nail scrap for its very existence in the war with Hezbollah.

The one outcome yet to be mentioned is potentially the most likely anyway: Netanyahu’s ouster.

If the war’s result is inconclusive and there is a failure to return all the hostages, whatever condition they may be in – and some half-dozen corpses have been found this week as the IDF has pushed deeper into Rafah – it is difficult to see how Netanyahu retains power.

The world could, therefore, be looking at a scenario wherein the IDF has to largely pull out of Gaza, Hamas remains in power with Sinwar at its head, some of the hostages are likely not returned, an all-out war erupts against Hezbollah, and the Netanyahu government falls.

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