SEOUL, South Korea — Indian vote counters had their work cut out Tuesday as the world’s most populous nation entered the final hours of the world’s greatest-ever exercise of democratic politics, but it was already clear the victory party for Prime Minister Narendra Modi will likely be a muted affair.

Results were being tallied after a six-weeks-long general election, held across a nation of 1.4 billion people that encompasses tiny villages and colossal urban areas, tropical jungles and scorching deserts, white sand beaches and snow-capped Himalayan peaks.

With 543 parliamentary seats up for grabs for the next five years, early indications are that Mr. Modi, as expected, is set for a third term in office, but that opposition parties did better than many pre-vote polls had predicted.

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“People have placed their faith in the NDA for a third consecutive term,” Mr. Modi said in a social media post. “This is a historical feat in India’s history.”

The NDA, or National Democratic Alliance, is the governing coalition led by Mr. Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (“Indian People’s Party”). Mr. Modi’s reference to the NDA rather than the BJP may reflect a changed parliamentary landscape.

Preliminary vote counts suggest a surprisingly strong challenge to Mr. Modi and the BJP from the main opposition Indian National Congress, as well as other parties. That means that while Mr. Modi himself looks secure, he could end up presiding over a parliament where his BJP-led coalition has lost its absolute majority and will need coalition partners to govern.

“This is a victory of the people and democracy,” Congress leader Mallikarjun Kharge told reporters. “People have not given clear mandate to any party. [The] mandate is against Narendra Modi.”

Congress party leaders had hoped to build on the paltry 52 seats they won in Mr. Modi’s 2019 landslide win, and were on track to roughly double that number, the Associated Press reported.

Projections Tuesday morning, with about 40% of the vote still to be tabulated, gave the BJP a likely 239 seats in the next parliament, down sharply from the 303 seats the party won five years ago. The broader NDA coalition was on track to control 294 seats, still comfortably above the 272 seats needed to form a majority government.

But there were clear signs the Indian political establishment was surprised by the results: The country’s two main stock indices, which were in record territory Monday in expectation of a big Modi victory, slumped sharply Tuesday as the results started coming in.

Political horse-trading looks likely. The leading parties will discuss the results and India’s changed political landscape at a meeting Wednesday, the Hindu newspaper reported.

Over the voting period, which stretched from 19 April to June 1, Mr. Modi trumpeted his party’s considerable progress on economic and welfare policies, but also sounded a clarion call of Hindu nationalism.

Muslims make up some 14 percent of India’s population. The BJP is widely seen as being Hindu-populist in its outlook, and the party has suffered from both inflation and joblessness.

With the results still to be tabulated, the Biden administration said Tuesday it was taking a wait-and-see attitude.

“We saw how devoted the Indian people are to voicing their desires and participating in a very vibrant process,” White House national security spokesman John Kirby told reporters. adding, “We’re going to withhold judgment and comment” until all the votes have been counted.

For Washington policymakers, India matters.

India, the world’s fifth largest economy, lies between Central Asia and East Asia, shares troubled borders with Pakistan and China, and has coastlines on the Arabian Sea, the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal.

Though nuclear-armed, the world’s largest democracy maintains a non-aligned geopolitical stance, Since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, some Western commentators have been irked by New Delhi’s continued friendliness toward Moscow, from which it has consistently bought arms and energy.

However, there is some Westward lean.

With Russian forces heavily engaged in combat, some foreign arms executives expect India – like Vietnam, a long-term user of Russian arms – to turn to alternative suppliers as Moscow is forced to use, rather than export, its own weaponry stocks.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, between 2019 and 2023, India was the world’s top arms importer. Though Russia remained India’s main supplier, accounting for 36% of weapons imports, the period was the first time since 1964 that Russian weaponry made up less than half of India’s arms imports.

In 2023, India approved the purchase of $8.5 billion worth of electronic warfare systems, helicopters, howitzers and missiles from U.S. suppliers.

While its stance toward Russia is nuanced, India is postured against China in the Himalayas and the Bay of Bengal. It is also a member of the Quad alliance alongside fellow democracies Australia, Japan and the United States, which China has claimed has been formed to contain its ambitions in the region.