JERUSALEM – Speculation is rife in Israel that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu finally has lost patience with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and will imminently dismiss him from his post. Rumors abound Netanyahu’s former political protégé Gidon Sa’ar – formerly of the LIkud Party, but now the New Hope faction leader – will replace him.

Likud party insiders leaked the progress of the talks between Netanyahu and Sa;ar, suggesting headway had been made. It is thought one of the stumbling blocks is Gallant’s future, a decision the ever-cautious prime minister has yet to finalize.

Netanyahu is wise to be cautious. The last time he fired Gallant in March 2023 over the defense minister’s opposition to the pace and shape of the proposed judicial reforms, tens of thousands of Israelis from across the political spectrum flooded onto the streets to protest the decision. The prime minister quickly reinstated Gallant, realizing the scale of opposition to his sidelining a political rival. And this was several months before Oct. 7 had even taken place. If anything, such a decision now might hide even greater jeopardy for the embattled premier.

One of the possible arrangements under consideration is a rotation scenario between Sa’ar and current Foreign Minister Israel Katz, where Katz would become defense minister for a period while Sa’ar would head the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. At the conclusion of that stint, Katz would return to the foreign ministry portfolio, and Sa’ar would slide into the defense brief. Former construction and housing minister Ze’ev Elkin is reportedly being touted as a future health minister. The prime minister’s office denied the reports about a putative deal with Sa’ar, claiming talk of the negotiations were “incorrect.”

National Interior Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, whose party’s Knesset seats are crucial for allowing Netanyahu to remain in power, took to X, formerly Twitter, to declare he’d been seeking Gallant’s dismissal for months.

“I’ve been calling for Prime Minister Netanyahu to fire Gallant for months, and the time has come to do it immediately. We need a decision in the North, and Galant is not the right man to lead this.”

במשך חודשים ארוכים אני קורא לראש הממשלה נתניהו לפטר את גלנט, והגיע הזמן לעשות זאת באופן מיידי. חייבים הכרעה בצפון וגלנט הוא לא האיש המתאים להוביל את זה.

— איתמר בן גביר (@itamarbengvir) September 16, 2024

Why now?

In a normal situation where the country was not fighting an 11-month war against an Iranian proxy in Gaza, and attempting to keep a lid on numerous other arenas against a similar enemy, Gallant – as well as other ministers, up to and including Netanyahu – should have offered mass resignations for the failure that was Oct. 7.

Several months ago there were rumors Gallant might consider resigning, taking on the mantle of collective responsibility for failures which came under his purview, although by no means exclusively down to him. It seems he hardened his own position once he realized Netanyahu had no intention of quitting willingly and was also attempting to shift the entirety of the blame onto the security establishment and the army. He may have also seen himself as a bulwark against Ben Gvir, and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.

Commentators in Israel are arguing it is precisely this – and the deep divisions over the drafting of Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) men to the army, which has set Gallant’s fate. He assesses there is a desperate need, as does much of the country, that all men of fighting age should be drafted into the military – and exceptions in the ultra-Orthodox community should only be made for the most advanced and learned students. As far as Gallant is concerned there should not be a blanket exemption for all young men studying in a yeshiva. This position puts him at odds with ultra-Orthodox members of the Knesset, as well as providing a considerable barrier to Netanyahu’s immediate political requirements – given he is reliant on his coalition to remain in power.

Predictably, the rumors of backroom deals and the optics of Netanyahu seeming to choose to save his political skin yet again, caused uproar among opposition leaders.

Netanyahu’s former war cabinet colleague Benny Gantz poured scorn on what he viewed as the prime minister’s politicking at such a sensitive time. In an X post, he wrote:

“Instead of the Prime Minister of Israel being busy with the victory over Hamas, the return of the hostages, the war with Hezbollah and the safe return of the residents of the north to their homes – he is busy in scornful political intrigues and changing the minister of defense before a massive campaign in the north. This indicates poor judgment and distorted priorities.”

ניתוק – קווים לדמותו:
במקום שראש ממשלת ישראל יהיה עסוק בניצחון על החמאס, בהחזרת החטופים, במלחמה בחיזבאללה ובהחזרת תושבי הצפון לבתיהם בביטחון – הוא עסוק
בקומבינות פוליטיות בזויות ובהחלפת שר ביטחון לפני מערכה עצימה בצפון.
הדבר מעיד על שיקול דעת לקוי וסדרי עדיפויות מעוותים.

— בני גנץ – Benny Gantz (@gantzbe) September 16, 2024

Meanwhile, leader of the opposition Yair Lapid also took to X to post several of Gidon Sa’ar’s previous quotes – some as recently as 2023 – about how he would not work with Netanyahu if he was still prime minister. In August 2022, Sa’ar wrote, “I will not return to a government that Netanyahu leads, because he represents an approach which endangers Israel’s future. My principles do not permit me to support a leader who puts his personal benefit above all.”

“לא אשב בממשלה עם נתניהו כי הוא מייצג גישה שמסכנת את עתידה של מדינת ישראל. העקרונות שלי לא מאפשרים לי לתמוך במנהיג ששם את טובתו האישית מעל הכל״ (גדעון סער, אוגוסט 2022)

— יאיר לפיד – Yair Lapid (@yairlapid) September 16, 2024

Israel is facing an uncertain future, with a potentially lengthy and very damaging war with Lebanon seemingly about to break out, as well as budgetary news, which showed how much of a toll the war has already had on the country’s economy… and worse than expected. And still, more than 100 hostages are languishing in unspeakable conditions in Hamas captivity in Gaza. As the one-year anniversary of the Oct. 7 attacks approaches, the country is left with much soul-searching about its future direction.