Russia considers 2025 a pivotal year because a failure to secure a victory in Ukraine by 2026 will undermine the Kremlin’s goal of remaining a global superpower, Kyiv’s top military intelligence officer said over the weekend.

Moscow aims to secure a decisive victory next year before looming economic and manpower restraints “significantly degrade” its ability to sustain the war effort, Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate, said Sunday at the latest Yalta European Strategy meeting in Kyiv.

“These are Russia’s calculations. If they do not come out of this war as self-professed winners by this time, then in the near future — about 30 years — they will lose the opportunity to be a superpower,” Gen. Budanov said in a statement. “Then, two countries will remain — the United States and China — and the most that Russia can count on is regional leadership, which does not suit it.”

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He said the Russian military is continuing to face personnel shortages, despite an increase in bonus payments of up to $11,000 for new soldiers willing to sign enlistment contracts. 

“Budanov assessed that mounting issues will force Russian President Vladimir Putin to make a critical decision: either launch another risky and controversial mobilization or reduce the intensity of combat operations in Ukraine,” according to a new analysis by the Institute for the Study of War think tank. “Budanov’s assessment implicitly assumes that Western states will maintain support for Ukraine at current levels over the next one to two years.”

Ukraine’s ongoing incursion into the Kursk oblast, along with regular strikes deeper into Russian territory, has eroded the public’s perception of invincibility, Gen. Budanov said.

“With the first explosions in Moscow and across Russia, this myth was destroyed. This is the main achievement of all these long-range strikes,” he said.