After the unsuccessful assassination attempt on former President and current presidential front-runner Donald Trump in July of 2024, both firearm sales and National Instant Background Check System (NICS) checks have increased for August. The absolute NICS check numbers increased by 5%. The estimated increase in firearm sales was 9%. Both numbers are the fifth highest year for August, as shown in the NICS records. July 2024 saw an increase in gun sales of 5% over 2023. August has nearly doubled that increase.

Gun sales are estimated because the NICS numbers contain background checks for other things than gun sales, particularly for firearms permits and permit renewals. More than one firearm can be purchased with one NICS check. In 25 states, some firearms permits allow for multiple firearms purchases using the permit instead of separate NICS checks. The statistics do not include private sales conducted between private parties without government interference.

In August of 2024, handgun sales were up about 6%, Long gun sales were up by 14%, other guns (mostly finished receivers) were up by 2%, and multiple gun sales were up by 9%.

As seen in the chart showing the sales of various types of firearms, August 2024 stands out as significantly higher than August 2023. With one-third of the year to go, including November and December, which are months with traditionally high gun sales, 2024 may well exceed the number of firearms sold in the NICS system in 2023.

Domestic turmoil is high. The dividing line appears to be between those who believe what the old media and the current administration tell them and those who do not. There has been the greatest differentiation between the political parties since the 1972 presidential election of Republican Nixon and Democratic George McGovern.

The world is experiencing a significant upsurge in chaos as those who dislike the United States as a world power push to overthrow Pax Americana.  With increased chaos, trade and travel become less safe and more expensive.

International chaos incentivizes people to become more self-reliant in the United States, as the bias toward normality, “It could never happen here,” becomes increasingly problematic.

The historically low prices for very capable firearms contribute to maintaining or increasing high firearm sales. Bear Creek Arsenal AR-15 style rifles are available at $429.  On sale, a Plumb Crazy complete lower, and a Bear Creek complete upper can be had, including tax and shipping, for under $300! These prices do not include sights. Very good utility rimfire and centerfire handguns are available for under $300, even under $200, at the best sales.

Court decisions may play a role. North Carolina gun law reform has resulted in a surge in handgun sales in that state. The requirement for shall issue carry permit laws, in those states still defying the Supreme Court, is likely increasing handgun sales.

Together, all of the effects have resulted in over five years, now 61 months, where more than a million firearms have been sold each month. The total for those 61 months is over 87 million firearms or 17% of firearms sold in the United States since 1900.

More people, less expensive guns, restoration of Second Amendment rights, and political and international insecurity all combine to create high firearm sales and a well-armed American citizenry.

About Dean Weingarten:

Dean Weingarten has been a peace officer, a military officer, was on the University of Wisconsin Pistol Team for four years, and was first certified to teach firearms safety in 1973. He taught the Arizona concealed carry course for fifteen years until the goal of Constitutional Carry was attained. He has degrees in meteorology and mining engineering, and retired from the Department of Defense after a 30 year career in Army Research, Development, Testing, and Evaluation.