It’s pretty clear to me that on Tuesday night, Vice President Kamala Harris won what may be the only debate between herself and former President Donald Trump. The vice president had some help, too. She was aided and abetted by two ABC News moderators who seemingly felt the need to fact-check virtually everything the former president said.

The former president was clearly frustrated and became more strident and divisive as the nearly two-hour debate continued. And the vice president appeared to gain renewed confidence as she saw Trump faltering under relentless questioning from herself and moderators David Muir and Linsey Davis.

Although Harris clearly won the debate in my estimation, it isn’t at all clear that this debate, just 56 days before the election, will fundamentally impact the outcome on November 5. 

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I say that because Trump did speak directly to his base on Tuesday night. His supporters understood, as well as anyone, how much bias ABC News introduced into the process. To be sure, Harris had better answers on abortion, healthcare, climate change and leadership for the future. That much is clear. But what is also clear is that what Trump said in his closing statement remains the case.

Voters remain angry about the direction the country is headed in, about the performance of both President Biden and Vice President Harris, as well as which candidate they trust more on the top two or three issues facing the country: the economy, immigration and law and order.

My best guess is that Harris will get a slight bump from her performance at this face-off, which had Democrats cheering as soon as Trump began turning harsh and hostile within the first 45 minutes of the debate.

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Yet, elections rarely turn on a dime as completely as they did after the June 27 debate between Trump and President Biden. And while Trump was a seemingly different man on Tuesday night than he was back in June, the points he made were the same. And many voters, indeed a majority of voters, agree with his core assessment of the current state of our nation. 

I also believe that this is likely to be the last debate that the candidates engage in. For Vice President Harris, the calculus is simple: she will claim victory, her supporters will be emboldened, money will continue to flow into her coffers and there will be absolutely no reason for her to reengage in any shape, matter or form with the former president.

The Harris campaign may claim that they want a second debate, but it will almost certainly be under conditions that the former president will never agree to. I doubt that Trump would ever agree to go back to ABC, much less NBC or CBS, and the chance that Harris will appear on Fox News is negligible at best.

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For the former president, the calculation is very different but reaches the same conclusion: his worst fears were confirmed on Tuesday night. The debate was hardly fair. And absent a debate on Fox News, there’s little reason to believe he’ll get a fair shake from any other network. 

He also knows that in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential contests, the first one a winning effort and the second one a losing effort, he was able to make up ground with voters separate and apart from any direct confrontation with his opponent. Trump, on the campaign trail, has a unique and compelling appeal. We have seen proof of that time and time again. ‘

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He and his advisers will likely conclude that they can do a lot better with voters by eschewing direct confrontation with Harris. They will do that by sending him out on the campaign trail to do both interviews and rallies. That will be far more effective than taking the risks inherent in a night like the one we witnessed on Tuesday. 

But, it is important to note that Harris did reaffirm, for her supporters and potentially many swing voters, that she is the real deal. She’s ready and able to govern. Still, at the same time, doubts about her as the next president of the United States remain strong and clear. Indeed, the great weakness of Trump’s performance on Tuesday night was that he failed to underscore the issue of the economy and the contrast between his economic leadership and that of Joe Biden in a way that was clear and accessible to voters. 

Trump’s emphasis on the southern border struck me as over the top, even if the points he was making have wide resonance. 

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Put another way, I am virtually certain many on the left will proclaim the election over based on Harris’s strong performance. That will almost certainly be an exaggeration or an overstatement. 

Trump will no doubt face a political setback from this week’s encounter with the vice president and the two moderators from ABC. But judging by the past, it would be a profound mistake to count him out. 

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